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UBER · Forward model · Delivery · Dara case

What has to happen in Delivery

Model as of

This page changes Delivery inside the complete UBER model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

UBER forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $212.04 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $15.29B 36% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $40.03B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

What the company's own stated end-state requires: 99 markets, $236bn of pro-forma bookings, the largest AV platform, and Delivery Hero high-single-digit accretive by year three. Terminal revenue of $158bn, 23.1% non-GAAP operating margin, exit at 3.8x. It reaches $212.04. Three things it does NOT reach or account for. First, autonomy earns nothing extra here that is not already in Mobility's margin glide - Uber discloses no AV revenue, so no line can carry it. Second, the stated multi-year autonomy commitment of more than $10bn is booked nowhere; at face value that is about $4.80 a share of spending the model never charges. Third, the share count is held flat although Uber is buying back stock, which understates every case including this one.

Delivery

Basis quarter$5.25B
Final quarter$15.29B
Implied CAGR+24%
Final revenue mix36%

Food, grocery, alcohol, convenience and retail delivery, plus the advertising sold against it. Same equation as Mobility, and the revenue margin has risen almost every quarter as advertising and Uber One have grown into it.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $4.48B Reported
2025 Q4 $4.89B Reported
2026 Q1 $5.07B Reported
2026 Q2 $5.25B Reported
Restaurant deliveryGrocery & RetailAdvertising
Units 27463/qtr growing +3.8% per quarter Delivery Gross Bookings, $27,463M in the June quarter, in millions of dollars.
Price per unit $190983 drifting +0.3% per quarter Revenue per $1M of bookings: a 19.10% revenue margin, up from 18.16% two years ago.
Delivery

Latest: $15.29B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $3.21B
2024Q2 $3.29B
2024Q3 $3.47B
2024Q4 $3.77B
2025Q1 $3.78B
2025Q2 $4.10B
2025Q3 $4.48B
2025Q4 $4.89B
2026Q1 $5.07B
2026Q2 $5.25B
2026Q3E $5.54B
2026Q4E $5.86B
2027Q1E $6.18B
2027Q2E $6.53B
2027Q3E $6.89B
2027Q4E $7.27B
2028Q1E $7.68B
2028Q2E $8.10B
2028Q3E $8.54B
2028Q4E $9.01B
2029Q1E $9.51B
2029Q2E $10.02B
2029Q3E $10.57B
2029Q4E $11.14B
2030Q1E $11.75B
2030Q2E $12.39B
2030Q3E $13.06B
2030Q4E $13.76B
2031Q1E $14.51B
2031Q2E $15.29B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The Delivery revenue margin has climbed from 18.16% to 19.10% over the ten reported quarters, which is the advertising and Uber One story showing up in a disclosed number rather than in a narrative.
  • Uber does not publish Delivery order counts or Delivery-only trips - Trips and Monthly Active Platform Consumers are consolidated across both segments - so Gross Bookings is the only per-segment volume that exists.
  • Grocery and Retail is reported inside Delivery and is not sized separately, so the model cannot show the mix shift the company talks about.
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