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UBER · Forward model · Delivery Hero

What has to happen in Delivery Hero

Model as of

This page changes Delivery Hero inside the complete UBER model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

UBER forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $137.73 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.83B 9% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.75B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Delivery Hero

Basis quarter$0
Final quarter$2.83B
Final revenue mix9%

The pending all-cash takeover of Delivery Hero. Uber acquires 50 markets carrying $42bn of 2025 Gross Merchandise Value; a further 14 overlapping markets go to SSW Partners and are not acquired. It nearly doubles the markets where Uber runs both mobility and delivery.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $0 Reported
2025 Q4 $0 Reported
2026 Q1 $0 Reported
2026 Q2 $0 Reported
Local food deliveryQuick commerceAdvertising
Units 10500/qtr growing +2.5% per quarter $42bn of 2025 bookings in the 50 markets Uber acquires, per quarter. Excludes the 14 sold to SSW.
Price per unit $180000 drifting +0.4% per quarter An 18.0% take rate, just under Uber's own 19.1%. No rate is disclosed for the acquired markets.
Delivery Hero

Latest: $2.83B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $0.00
2024Q2 $0.00
2024Q3 $0.00
2024Q4 $0.00
2025Q1 $0.00
2025Q2 $0.00
2025Q3 $0.00
2025Q4 $0.00
2026Q1 $0.00
2026Q2 $0.00
2026Q3E $0.00
2026Q4E $0.00
2027Q1E $0.00
2027Q2E $0.00
2027Q3E $0.00
2027Q4E $1.94B
2028Q1E $2.00B
2028Q2E $2.06B
2028Q3E $2.12B
2028Q4E $2.17B
2029Q1E $2.23B
2029Q2E $2.29B
2029Q3E $2.36B
2029Q4E $2.42B
2030Q1E $2.48B
2030Q2E $2.55B
2030Q3E $2.62B
2030Q4E $2.68B
2031Q1E $2.75B
2031Q2E $2.83B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Delivery Hero is not owned. The line carries zero across every historical quarter and starts five quarters out, the second half of 2027 the company guided to.
  • The 14 markets going to SSW Partners for about $1.6bn - $11bn of 2025 bookings - are excluded from this line, which is why it starts from $42bn rather than the $53bn Delivery Hero runs today.
  • Net cash in this model is already reduced by the $13.7bn consideration, so switching this vertical off would leave the valuation paying for something it never bought.
  • Delivery Hero's own debt is not disclosed in Uber's announcement and is not modelled here; net cash therefore understates what the combined balance sheet would carry.
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