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UBER · Forward model · Delivery Hero · Dara case

What has to happen in Delivery Hero

Model as of

This page changes Delivery Hero inside the complete UBER model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

UBER forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $212.04 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $5.62B 13% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $9.64B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

What the company's own stated end-state requires: 99 markets, $236bn of pro-forma bookings, the largest AV platform, and Delivery Hero high-single-digit accretive by year three. Terminal revenue of $158bn, 23.1% non-GAAP operating margin, exit at 3.8x. It reaches $212.04. Three things it does NOT reach or account for. First, autonomy earns nothing extra here that is not already in Mobility's margin glide - Uber discloses no AV revenue, so no line can carry it. Second, the stated multi-year autonomy commitment of more than $10bn is booked nowhere; at face value that is about $4.80 a share of spending the model never charges. Third, the share count is held flat although Uber is buying back stock, which understates every case including this one.

Delivery Hero

Basis quarter$0
Final quarter$5.62B
Final revenue mix13%

The pending all-cash takeover of Delivery Hero. Uber acquires 50 markets carrying $42bn of 2025 Gross Merchandise Value; a further 14 overlapping markets go to SSW Partners and are not acquired. It nearly doubles the markets where Uber runs both mobility and delivery.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $0 Reported
2025 Q4 $0 Reported
2026 Q1 $0 Reported
2026 Q2 $0 Reported
Local food deliveryQuick commerceAdvertising
Units 10500/qtr growing +2.5% per quarter $42bn of 2025 bookings in the 50 markets Uber acquires, per quarter. Excludes the 14 sold to SSW.
Price per unit $180000 drifting +0.4% per quarter An 18.0% take rate, just under Uber's own 19.1%. No rate is disclosed for the acquired markets.
Delivery Hero

Latest: $5.62B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $0.00
2024Q2 $0.00
2024Q3 $0.00
2024Q4 $0.00
2025Q1 $0.00
2025Q2 $0.00
2025Q3 $0.00
2025Q4 $0.00
2026Q1 $0.00
2026Q2 $0.00
2026Q3E $0.00
2026Q4E $0.00
2027Q1E $0.00
2027Q2E $0.00
2027Q3E $0.00
2027Q4E $2.39B
2028Q1E $2.55B
2028Q2E $2.71B
2028Q3E $2.88B
2028Q4E $3.07B
2029Q1E $3.26B
2029Q2E $3.47B
2029Q3E $3.68B
2029Q4E $3.92B
2030Q1E $4.16B
2030Q2E $4.42B
2030Q3E $4.69B
2030Q4E $4.99B
2031Q1E $5.29B
2031Q2E $5.62B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Delivery Hero is not owned. The line carries zero across every historical quarter and starts five quarters out, the second half of 2027 the company guided to.
  • The 14 markets going to SSW Partners for about $1.6bn - $11bn of 2025 bookings - are excluded from this line, which is why it starts from $42bn rather than the $53bn Delivery Hero runs today.
  • Net cash in this model is already reduced by the $13.7bn consideration, so switching this vertical off would leave the valuation paying for something it never bought.
  • Delivery Hero's own debt is not disclosed in Uber's announcement and is not modelled here; net cash therefore understates what the combined balance sheet would carry.
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