TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
Quarterly revenue, EPS, free cash flow, valuation, and Rule of 40 scores for Tesla, Inc..
Coverage
SpaceX Uses Megapacks to Tame Its Gigawatt. Bloom Energy Sells the Megawatts Before the Grid Arrives.
Tesla Megapacks stabilize volatile AI loads and store electricity. Bloom fuel cells generate continuous power onsite. This is the full data-center power stack, where each approach wins, and why the eventual architecture is likely to use both.
Tesla Named 2,500 Robotaxis in a Year as an Ambition. Our Model Assumes 3,315, and the Only Measured Rate Is 601.
The Cybercab launch event is confirmed for September 3 in Austin, but the number worth checking came from a Nevada hearing two weeks earlier: Tesla's Cybercab chief engineer said 2,500 vehicles in Clark County over twelve months would leave the company satisfied. It is the first deployment rate Tesla has named, and the first thing we can grade our own assumptions against. Our model adds 3,315 across every market; the Texas registry is running at 601 a year. At Tesla's own trading multiple the whole first year is worth 77 cents a share.
Nevada Granted Tesla All 5,000 Robotaxis. On Our Model That Is Worth 33 Cents.
The Nevada Transportation Authority unanimously approved three permits on August 20 — Tesla 5,000, Waymo 1,000, Uber 1,000 — replacing the interim order that had capped Tesla at ten cars. Tesla got its entire ask. Moving our model's starting fleet from 1,000 to the full 5,000 is worth 33 cents a share. Moving the rate it grows at is worth eleven dollars, and Tesla's Cybercab chief engineer used the hearing to say the ceiling was never the constraint.
Tesla Retired the Solar Roof and Reorganised Home Energy Around Two Products. Our Model Prices the Whole Solar Line at $3.63 a Share.
Tesla has stopped supplying Solar Roof tiles to its installers. It is not an exit from solar: the tile is being replaced by a Buffalo-assembled panel, and the plant reported to replace Buffalo targets 100 GW a year against Buffalo's 300 MW — on the same Brookshire site as the Megapack line. The product being retired installed about 3,000 systems, three weeks of the rate it was announced at, and the entire solar vertical is worth $3.63 of a $272.39 base-case fair value on our model.
Waymo's Custom Silicon Is a Real Step Down in Cost. At $125,000 a Car Against a Cybercab We Put at $20,000-$30,000, It Is No Threat Yet to Tesla's Scale.
Waymo cut $75,000 out of its robotaxi in one generation and its new 5nm ASIC is a genuine piece of engineering. It is also a front-end sensor processor whose 1,000-plus TOPS run before the driving stack, and it sits on the small half of a vehicle Morgan Stanley puts at $125,000 — four to six times what we estimate a Cybercab costs to build.
Adding $1 Trillion to Tesla Takes 1.8 Million Robotaxis. Three Factories Flat Out Get There in 2031.
At our model's 8x revenue exit multiple, $1 trillion of added market value needs $125B of annual robotaxi revenue — 1.79 million cars at $70,000 each. Pushed to an extreme of Giga Texas doubled to 250,000 a year plus one US and one European factory from 2029, the fleet crosses that in 2031, and the line adds about 50 points of revenue growth a year from 2030.
Where the revenue goes next
Latest: $28.24B (2026Q2)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2020Q3 | $8.77B |
| 2020Q4 | $10.74B |
| 2021Q1 | $10.39B |
| 2021Q2 | $11.96B |
| 2021Q3 | $13.76B |
| 2021Q4 | $17.72B |
| 2022Q1 | $18.76B |
| 2022Q2 | $16.93B |
| 2022Q3 | $21.45B |
| 2022Q4 | $24.32B |
| 2023Q1 | $23.33B |
| 2023Q2 | $24.93B |
| 2023Q3 | $23.35B |
| 2023Q4 | $25.17B |
| 2024Q1 | $21.30B |
| 2024Q2 | $25.50B |
| 2024Q3 | $25.18B |
| 2024Q4 | $25.71B |
| 2025Q1 | $19.34B |
| 2025Q2 | $22.50B |
| 2025Q3 | $28.09B |
| 2025Q4 | $24.90B |
| 2026Q1 | $22.39B |
| 2026Q2 | $28.24B |
Latest: $0.32 (2026Q2)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2020Q3 | $0.09 |
| 2020Q4 | $0.08 |
| 2021Q1 | $0.13 |
| 2021Q2 | $0.34 |
| 2021Q3 | $0.48 |
| 2021Q4 | $0.68 |
| 2022Q1 | $0.95 |
| 2022Q2 | $0.65 |
| 2022Q3 | $0.95 |
| 2022Q4 | $1.07 |
| 2023Q1 | $0.73 |
| 2023Q2 | $0.78 |
| 2023Q3 | $0.53 |
| 2023Q4 | $2.26 |
| 2024Q1 | $0.41 |
| 2024Q2 | $0.40 |
| 2024Q3 | $0.62 |
| 2024Q4 | $0.61 |
| 2025Q1 | $0.12 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.33 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.39 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.24 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.13 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.32 |
Latest: 341.1 (2026Q1)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2020Q2 | 562.8 |
| 2020Q3 | 862.0 |
| 2020Q4 | 1127.6 |
| 2021Q1 | 668.0 |
| 2021Q2 | 354.0 |
| 2021Q3 | 251.0 |
| 2021Q4 | 215.7 |
| 2022Q1 | 146.2 |
| 2022Q2 | 81.1 |
| 2022Q3 | 82.0 |
| 2022Q4 | 34.0 |
| 2023Q1 | 61.0 |
| 2023Q2 | 74.2 |
| 2023Q3 | 80.5 |
| 2023Q4 | 57.6 |
| 2024Q1 | 44.8 |
| 2024Q2 | 55.6 |
| 2024Q3 | 71.7 |
| 2024Q4 | 198.0 |
| 2025Q1 | 142.4 |
| 2025Q2 | 183.6 |
| 2025Q3 | 296.5 |
| 2025Q4 | 416.4 |
| 2026Q1 | 341.1 |
Latest: -$1.09B (2026Q2)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2020Q3 | $1.40B |
| 2020Q4 | $1.87B |
| 2021Q1 | $293M |
| 2021Q2 | $619M |
| 2021Q3 | $1.33B |
| 2021Q4 | $2.77B |
| 2022Q1 | $2.23B |
| 2022Q2 | $621M |
| 2022Q3 | $3.31B |
| 2022Q4 | $1.42B |
| 2023Q1 | $441M |
| 2023Q2 | $1.00B |
| 2023Q3 | $848M |
| 2023Q4 | $2.06B |
| 2024Q1 | -$2.54B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.34B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.74B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.03B |
| 2025Q1 | $664M |
| 2025Q2 | $146M |
| 2025Q3 | $3.99B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.42B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.44B |
| 2026Q2 | -$1.09B |
Latest: $3,325,819,167.00 (2025Q3)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2018Q1 | $169,793,685.00 |
| 2018Q2 | $170,593,144.00 |
| 2018Q3 | $171,732,775.00 |
| 2019Q1 | $173,720,801.00 |
| 2019Q2 | $179,127,239.00 |
| 2019Q3 | $180,244,858.00 |
| 2020Q1 | $185,371,105.00 |
| 2020Q2 | $186,361,726.00 |
| 2020Q3 | $947,900,733.00 |
| 2021Q1 | $963,330,448.00 |
| 2021Q2 | $990,015,158.00 |
| 2021Q3 | $1,004,264,852.00 |
| 2022Q1 | $1,036,009,925.00 |
| 2022Q2 | $1,044,490,015.00 |
| 2022Q3 | $3,157,752,449.00 |
| 2023Q1 | $3,169,504,301.00 |
| 2023Q2 | $3,173,994,467.00 |
| 2023Q3 | $3,178,921,391.00 |
| 2024Q1 | $3,189,196,167.00 |
| 2024Q2 | $3,194,640,415.00 |
| 2024Q3 | $3,210,059,659.00 |
| 2025Q1 | $3,220,956,211.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $3,225,448,889.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $3,325,819,167.00 |
Latest: $21.97B (2026Q2)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2020Q3 | -$7.00B |
| 2020Q4 | -$5.13B |
| 2021Q1 | -$4.84B |
| 2021Q2 | -$4.22B |
| 2021Q3 | -$2.89B |
| 2021Q4 | -$115M |
| 2022Q1 | $2.11B |
| 2022Q2 | $2.73B |
| 2022Q3 | $6.04B |
| 2022Q4 | $7.46B |
| 2023Q1 | $7.90B |
| 2023Q2 | $8.91B |
| 2023Q3 | $9.75B |
| 2023Q4 | $11.82B |
| 2024Q1 | $9.28B |
| 2024Q2 | $10.62B |
| 2024Q3 | $13.37B |
| 2024Q4 | $15.40B |
| 2025Q1 | $16.06B |
| 2025Q2 | $16.21B |
| 2025Q3 | $20.20B |
| 2025Q4 | $21.62B |
| 2026Q1 | $23.06B |
| 2026Q2 | $21.97B |
Latest results
Company History
Founded by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning in July 2003 in San Carlos, California. Focused on batteries, software, and motors to accelerate sustainable energy.
Production of Roadster started; Musk became CEO in October after changes.
Went public on NASDAQ, raising $226 million (first US car IPO since 1956); purchased NUMMI plant from Toyota for $42 million.
Launched Model S sedan; won Motor Trend Car of the Year, best-selling plug-in car.
Acquired SolarCity for $2.6 billion, forming Tesla Energy.
Added to S&P 500 index, becoming one of the most valuable companies.
Ramped up Cybertruck production after initial delays.
Key Players
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By latest reported 13F position value. Market value at quarter-end, not cost basis.
