← PLTR forward model

PLTR · Forward model · U.S. government · Karp case

What has to happen in U.S. government

Model as of

This page changes U.S. government inside the complete PLTR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PLTR forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $337.31 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.98B 16% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $20.65B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The founder's stated commitment taken literally. Karp told the Q2 call he is driving the WHOLE business to grow at or above the U.S. commercial rate for the next eighteen months - so every box is lifted here, not just the one that is already compounding. That requires 653 accounts to keep expanding at something close to 157% net dollar retention while the account count adds only about a third a year, and it requires $2.132B of U.S. commercial TCV in a single quarter to keep repeating. What this case does NOT reach is coverage: even here, most of the revenue in the back half of the horizon comes from contracts not yet signed, because only $4.9B is non-cancelable and 43% of that lands within twelve months. It is a claim about demand, not a claim about backlog.

U.S. government

Basis quarter$809M
Final quarter$2.98B
Implied CAGR+30%
Final revenue mix16%

The floor. $809M in the basis quarter, up 90% year-over-year and 18% sequentially, and still the largest single box. Defense and civil agencies running Gotham, Maven and increasingly AIP. It is sticky in practice and cancelable on paper: most of these contracts carry termination-for-convenience clauses or initial terms under twelve months, which is precisely why the $4.9B RPO is, in the CFO's words, primarily commercial. Nothing Palantir publishes gives this box a volume unit — no agency count, no seat count, no programme count — so the honest driver is a growth rate with the reason stated.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $486M Reported
2025 Q4 $570M Reported
2026 Q1 $687M Reported
2026 Q2 $809M Reported
Gotham for defense and intelligenceMaven Smart SystemAIP in civil agenciesApollo delivery and accreditation
Sequential growth +10.0%/qtr decaying toward +3.0% 10% against the 18% just delivered. Government revenue is lumpy on award timing and the last five quarters averaged 17%.
U.S. government

Latest: $2.98B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $320M
2024Q4 $343M
2025Q1 $373M
2025Q2 $426M
2025Q3 $486M
2025Q4 $570M
2026Q1 $687M
2026Q2 $809M
2026Q3E $899M
2026Q4E $991M
2027Q1E $1.09B
2027Q2E $1.18B
2027Q3E $1.28B
2027Q4E $1.38B
2028Q1E $1.48B
2028Q2E $1.58B
2028Q3E $1.69B
2028Q4E $1.79B
2029Q1E $1.90B
2029Q2E $2.01B
2029Q3E $2.12B
2029Q4E $2.23B
2030Q1E $2.35B
2030Q2E $2.47B
2030Q3E $2.59B
2030Q4E $2.72B
2031Q1E $2.84B
2031Q2E $2.98B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Palantir does not publish an agency count, a programme count or a seat count for government at any geography, so there is no volume unit to model. A growth driver here is a disclosure limit, not laziness.
  • The CTO put trailing-twelve-month Department of War revenue at under 25 basis points of the Pentagon budget. That is the bull framing; the bear framing is that the same budget can be reprogrammed inside a quarter.
  • Sequential growth has been unusually steady — 14%, 14%, 17%, 21%, 18% across the last five quarters — which is what makes a growth rate defensible for this line even without a driver.
  • This box barely appears in RPO. Termination-for-convenience clauses and sub-twelve-month initial terms mean the GAAP visibility number describes the commercial business, not this one.
  • A growth driver here is a disclosure limit made visible, not a modelling shortcut. If Palantir ever publishes a government agency or programme count, this line should be rebuilt on it.
PLTR model map

Explore another vertical