PLTR · Forward model · U.S. commercial · Karp case
What has to happen in U.S. commercial
Model as of
This page changes U.S. commercial inside the complete PLTR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
U.S. commercial
The engine and the entire stock narrative. $764M in the basis quarter, up 149% year-over-year and 28% sequentially, from 653 customers — a customer count that grew only 35%. The gap between those two numbers is the business: existing accounts expanding, at 157% net dollar retention, from an AIP bootcamp at one operating unit to a portfolio-wide contract. The volume unit is the customer; the monetisation is revenue per customer, which more than doubled year-over-year. This is the one box with a published driver, and it is the box Karp's eighteen-month commitment is denominated in.
Latest: $14.80B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $179M |
| 2024Q4 | $214M |
| 2025Q1 | $255M |
| 2025Q2 | $306M |
| 2025Q3 | $397M |
| 2025Q4 | $507M |
| 2026Q1 | $595M |
| 2026Q2 | $764M |
| 2026Q3E | $969M |
| 2026Q4E | $1.21B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.49B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.80B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.16B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.56B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.01B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.51B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.06B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.67B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.34B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.06B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.86B |
| 2029Q4E | $7.73B |
| 2030Q1E | $8.67B |
| 2030Q2E | $9.70B |
| 2030Q3E | $10.82B |
| 2030Q4E | $12.04B |
| 2031Q1E | $13.36B |
| 2031Q2E | $14.80B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Revenue per customer is the whole story: 653 customers, up 35%, produced revenue up 149%. Expansion, not new logos, is doing the work, and net dollar retention of 157% is the number that has to hold for the model to.
- The customer count is a trailing-twelve-month definition, so an account that stops paying rolls off with a lag. At an accelerating base the count slightly overstates the live paying set, which flatters revenue per customer downward rather than upward.
- This is the only box with a published volume unit, which is why it carries a real driver and the other three do not. Treat the contrast as information about disclosure, not about the businesses.
- Modelled as capacity rather than as a subscription because the engine's subscription curve compounds ARPU drift forever with no glide, and 157% net dollar retention extrapolated over twenty quarters is not a forecast, it is an arithmetic accident.
- Revenue per account carries the whole expansion story. Account growth contributes about a third of the projected increase; the rest is existing accounts spending more, which is exactly how the last four quarters worked.