PLTR · Forward model · Karp case
The Karp case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Palantir publishes the two axes SEPARATELY, never as a grid. Segment revenue (Government, Commercial) is reported with a contribution margin for each; geography is reported as United States and rest of world with no segment split. The four boxes are reachable because U.S. commercial and U.S. government revenue appear in the release highlights every quarter, so the two international boxes are exact residuals: segment revenue less the U.S. figure. That arithmetic reconciles — for the basis quarter it gives $181.4M international commercial and $181.0M international government, summing to $362.5M against the disclosed $362.417M rest-of-world, the $47K gap being the rounding of the U.S. figures to the million. The CFO independently stated $182M and $181M for those two lines on the Q2 call, which confirms the method rather than replacing it. What is genuinely ASSUMED is the MARGIN split by geography. Contribution margin is disclosed by segment only — 78% commercial and 71% government in the basis quarter — so both commercial boxes carry 78% and both government boxes carry 71%, and any real difference between U.S. and international economics is invisible here. Note also that contribution is defined as segment revenue less cost of revenue and sales and marketing only: research and development, general and administrative and ALL stock-based compensation are unallocated, and sit in the corporate layer, which is what makes contribution less overhead reconcile exactly to GAAP income from operations. Volume units are disclosed for one box only. Palantir publishes a U.S. commercial customer count (653) and a total trailing-twelve-month customer count (1,049), but never a government, international or per-geography count, so three of the four boxes have no knowable driver. On the projection itself: the base case honours the raised U.S. commercial guide, landing 2026 at $3.44B against the "in excess of $3.424B" Palantir guided, and lands the company at $8.28B against the $8.150-8.158B total guide - about 1.5% high. The two guides cannot both bind unless government and international decelerate abruptly in the second half, and that gap is the conservatism in a guide Palantir has raised every quarter. It is left visible rather than tuned away. One consequence of putting all stock compensation in the corporate layer: free cash flow here runs near 36% of revenue where Palantir's reported figure runs above 60%, because the reported number adds stock compensation back and pays almost no cash tax against accumulated losses. This model charges both - 27.1% of revenue in overhead including the full $265M quarterly stock-compensation expense, and the 23.0% long-run tax rate Palantir itself uses for adjusted EPS. That is the conservative reading, and it is the consistent one, because share count is held flat: if the dilution is not charged to the share count it has to be charged to the cash flow. Every historical bar carries the estimated-split marker, which is correct - consolidated revenue is reported in every quarter, but two of the four boxes inside it are derived by subtraction in every quarter.
The founder's stated commitment taken literally. Karp told the Q2 call he is driving the WHOLE business to grow at or above the U.S. commercial rate for the next eighteen months - so every box is lifted here, not just the one that is already compounding. That requires 653 accounts to keep expanding at something close to 157% net dollar retention while the account count adds only about a third a year, and it requires $2.132B of U.S. commercial TCV in a single quarter to keep repeating. What this case does NOT reach is coverage: even here, most of the revenue in the back half of the horizon comes from contracts not yet signed, because only $4.9B is non-cancelable and 43% of that lands within twelve months. It is a claim about demand, not a claim about backlog.
Latest: $18.54B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $726M |
| 2024Q4 | $828M |
| 2025Q1 | $884M |
| 2025Q2 | $1.00B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.18B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.41B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.63B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.94B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.25B |
| 2026Q4E | $2.60B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.99B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.42B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.89B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.41B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.98B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.60B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.28B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.01B |
| 2029Q1E | $7.80B |
| 2029Q2E | $8.66B |
| 2029Q3E | $9.59B |
| 2029Q4E | $10.59B |
| 2030Q1E | $11.68B |
| 2030Q2E | $12.85B |
| 2030Q3E | $14.11B |
| 2030Q4E | $15.48B |
| 2031Q1E | $16.95B |
| 2031Q2E | $18.54B |
What drives each segment
U.S. commercial
Capacity × utilisation × priceThe engine and the entire stock narrative. $764M in the basis quarter, up 149% year-over-year and 28% sequentially, from 653 customers — a customer count that grew only 35%. The gap between those two numbers is the business: existing accounts expanding, at 157% net dollar retention, from an AIP bootcamp at one operating unit to a portfolio-wide contract. The volume unit is the customer; the monetisation is revenue per customer, which more than doubled year-over-year. This is the one box with a published driver, and it is the box Karp's eighteen-month commitment is denominated in.
Latest: $14.80B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $179M |
| 2024Q4 | $214M |
| 2025Q1 | $255M |
| 2025Q2 | $306M |
| 2025Q3 | $397M |
| 2025Q4 | $507M |
| 2026Q1 | $595M |
| 2026Q2 | $764M |
| 2026Q3E | $969M |
| 2026Q4E | $1.21B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.49B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.80B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.16B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.56B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.01B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.51B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.06B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.67B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.34B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.06B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.86B |
| 2029Q4E | $7.73B |
| 2030Q1E | $8.67B |
| 2030Q2E | $9.70B |
| 2030Q3E | $10.82B |
| 2030Q4E | $12.04B |
| 2031Q1E | $13.36B |
| 2031Q2E | $14.80B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Revenue per customer is the whole story: 653 customers, up 35%, produced revenue up 149%. Expansion, not new logos, is doing the work, and net dollar retention of 157% is the number that has to hold for the model to.
- The customer count is a trailing-twelve-month definition, so an account that stops paying rolls off with a lag. At an accelerating base the count slightly overstates the live paying set, which flatters revenue per customer downward rather than upward.
- This is the only box with a published volume unit, which is why it carries a real driver and the other three do not. Treat the contrast as information about disclosure, not about the businesses.
- Modelled as capacity rather than as a subscription because the engine's subscription curve compounds ARPU drift forever with no glide, and 157% net dollar retention extrapolated over twenty quarters is not a forecast, it is an arithmetic accident.
- Revenue per account carries the whole expansion story. Account growth contributes about a third of the projected increase; the rest is existing accounts spending more, which is exactly how the last four quarters worked.
U.S. government
Growth pathThe floor. $809M in the basis quarter, up 90% year-over-year and 18% sequentially, and still the largest single box. Defense and civil agencies running Gotham, Maven and increasingly AIP. It is sticky in practice and cancelable on paper: most of these contracts carry termination-for-convenience clauses or initial terms under twelve months, which is precisely why the $4.9B RPO is, in the CFO's words, primarily commercial. Nothing Palantir publishes gives this box a volume unit — no agency count, no seat count, no programme count — so the honest driver is a growth rate with the reason stated.
Latest: $2.98B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $320M |
| 2024Q4 | $343M |
| 2025Q1 | $373M |
| 2025Q2 | $426M |
| 2025Q3 | $486M |
| 2025Q4 | $570M |
| 2026Q1 | $687M |
| 2026Q2 | $809M |
| 2026Q3E | $899M |
| 2026Q4E | $991M |
| 2027Q1E | $1.09B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.18B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.28B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.38B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.48B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.58B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.69B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.79B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.90B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.01B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.12B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.23B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.35B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.47B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.59B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.72B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.84B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.98B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Palantir does not publish an agency count, a programme count or a seat count for government at any geography, so there is no volume unit to model. A growth driver here is a disclosure limit, not laziness.
- The CTO put trailing-twelve-month Department of War revenue at under 25 basis points of the Pentagon budget. That is the bull framing; the bear framing is that the same budget can be reprogrammed inside a quarter.
- Sequential growth has been unusually steady — 14%, 14%, 17%, 21%, 18% across the last five quarters — which is what makes a growth rate defensible for this line even without a driver.
- This box barely appears in RPO. Termination-for-convenience clauses and sub-twelve-month initial terms mean the GAAP visibility number describes the commercial business, not this one.
- A growth driver here is a disclosure limit made visible, not a modelling shortcut. If Palantir ever publishes a government agency or programme count, this line should be rebuilt on it.
International commercial
Growth pathThe box that is not compounding. $181M in the basis quarter, up 26% year-over-year and 2% sequentially — a rate the rest of the company left behind two years ago. Same product, same AIP, and the bootcamp motion that converted U.S. enterprises has not reproduced itself in Europe. Karp said as much on the call. At under 10% of consolidated revenue it cannot rescue or sink the model, but it is the control experiment: it shows what AIP demand looks like without the U.S. sovereign-AI tailwind, and the model must not let it borrow the U.S. commercial curve.
Latest: $350M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $138M |
| 2024Q4 | $158M |
| 2025Q1 | $142M |
| 2025Q2 | $145M |
| 2025Q3 | $151M |
| 2025Q4 | $170M |
| 2026Q1 | $179M |
| 2026Q2 | $181M |
| 2026Q3E | $189M |
| 2026Q4E | $196M |
| 2027Q1E | $203M |
| 2027Q2E | $211M |
| 2027Q3E | $218M |
| 2027Q4E | $226M |
| 2028Q1E | $234M |
| 2028Q2E | $241M |
| 2028Q3E | $249M |
| 2028Q4E | $257M |
| 2029Q1E | $266M |
| 2029Q2E | $274M |
| 2029Q3E | $283M |
| 2029Q4E | $292M |
| 2030Q1E | $301M |
| 2030Q2E | $310M |
| 2030Q3E | $320M |
| 2030Q4E | $330M |
| 2031Q1E | $340M |
| 2031Q2E | $350M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Twenty-six percent year-over-year and two percent sequentially. This box is growing, not compounding, and the model should not allow it to inherit the U.S. commercial expansion rate at any point in the horizon.
- Revenue is the residual of disclosed commercial segment revenue less the disclosed U.S. commercial figure. The CFO independently stated $182M for this line on the Q2 call, which confirms the subtraction to the rounding.
- Karp's own description of European growth on the call was that it 'sucks', and he framed continued support for European institutions as a decision against Palantir's economic interest.
- Because the U.S. figures in the release are rounded to the million, this residual carries up to about $0.5M of rounding error per quarter — immaterial against a $181M line but worth knowing before quoting it to three decimals.
International government
Growth pathThe smallest box and the fastest-growing of the two international lines: $181M, up 42% year-over-year and 5% sequentially. Sovereign-AI and defence budgets outside the United States — NATO members, allied intelligence and civil agencies — rather than the bootcamp-to-production motion that drives U.S. commercial. It runs on the same termination-for-convenience terms as the U.S. government book, so it is equally absent from RPO, and at roughly 9% of consolidated revenue it cannot change the answer on its own.
Latest: $423M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $88M |
| 2024Q4 | $112M |
| 2025Q1 | $114M |
| 2025Q2 | $127M |
| 2025Q3 | $147M |
| 2025Q4 | $160M |
| 2026Q1 | $171M |
| 2026Q2 | $181M |
| 2026Q3E | $192M |
| 2026Q4E | $203M |
| 2027Q1E | $214M |
| 2027Q2E | $225M |
| 2027Q3E | $235M |
| 2027Q4E | $246M |
| 2028Q1E | $257M |
| 2028Q2E | $269M |
| 2028Q3E | $280M |
| 2028Q4E | $291M |
| 2029Q1E | $303M |
| 2029Q2E | $315M |
| 2029Q3E | $327M |
| 2029Q4E | $340M |
| 2030Q1E | $353M |
| 2030Q2E | $366M |
| 2030Q3E | $380M |
| 2030Q4E | $393M |
| 2031Q1E | $408M |
| 2031Q2E | $423M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Forty-two percent year-over-year, faster than international commercial, and driven by sovereign-AI and allied defence budgets rather than by any AIP bootcamp conversion motion.
- Same residual method as international commercial, and the same absence of a volume unit; no agency counts are published for any geography, so this line is a growth rate by necessity.
- At $181M a quarter this is roughly 9% of consolidated revenue. Even a doubling or a halving moves the fair value by less than the choice of exit multiple does.
- Like the U.S. government box, these contracts are largely terminable for convenience, so this revenue is effectively absent from the $4.9B of remaining performance obligations.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 10-Q - remaining performance obligations and cancelability
- Aug 4, 2026 The Company’s remaining performance obligations were $4.9 billion as of June 30, 2026, of which the Company expects to recognize approximately 43% as revenue over the next 12 months, 36% as revenue over the subsequent 13 to 36 months, and the remainder thereafter.
- Aug 4, 2026 the Company allows many of its customers to terminate contracts for convenience prior to the end of the stated term with less than twelve months’ notice
Q2 2026 earnings release - what TCV and RDV actually presume
Q2 2026 earnings call - the CFO on what RPO excludes
- Aug 3, 2026 RPO is primarily comprised of our commercial business as it does not take into account contracts with initial term of less than 12 months and contractual obligations that fall beyond termination for convenience clauses, both of which are common in most of our government business.
- Aug 3, 2026 We ended the second quarter with $13.1 billion in total remaining deal value, an increase of 83% year-over-year and 11% sequentially.
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 earnings call - the expansion metrics
- Aug 3, 2026 Net dollar retention was 157%, an increase of 700 basis points from last quarter.
- Aug 3, 2026 Our U.S. commercial customer count grew to 653 customers, reflecting growth of 35% year-over-year and 6% sequentially.
- Aug 3, 2026 Remaining performance obligations grew to $4.9 billion, a 103% increase year-over-year, reflecting strong noncancelable contract growth.
Q2 2026 earnings call - the land-and-expand pattern, named
- Aug 3, 2026 A multinational technology company began working with us in the fourth quarter of last year at one operating company and expanded on their success with our platform to deliver revolutionary impact across their full portfolio, converting to a 3-year nearly $370 million deal last quarter.
- Aug 3, 2026 A global asset management firm started working with us in Q1, then converted last quarter to a 3-year $35 million TCV deal.
Q2 2026 earnings release - the commercial book
Karp case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Karp column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 earnings call - Karp on the eighteen-month commitment
- Aug 3, 2026 I am driving the business to grow at a rate equal or above to what we have in U.S. commercial for the next 18 months, which is a very high goal, but it is one we can actually get to.
- Aug 3, 2026 We're also raising our full year 2026 revenue guidance midpoint to $8.154 billion, representing 82% growth year-over-year and an 11-point increase over our full year 2026 revenue guidance from last quarter and our largest ever full year revenue guidance raise.
Q2 2026 earnings release - the guide the commitment is measured against
Q2 2026 earnings call - the headroom the case rests on
- Aug 3, 2026 For all that growth, our Department of War trailing 12-month revenue is still less than 25 basis points of the Pentagon's budget.
- Aug 3, 2026 Maven continues to deliver for the Joint Force from the factory floor to the foxhole. We had our first program in the Maven platform launched this past quarter, where a government program of record chose Maven.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $48.74B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $65.09B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $34.63B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 20.0x |
| Terminal value | $1.30T |
| Discounted at 10.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $808.30B |
| Enterprise value | $857.04B |
| Net cash | $9.41B |
| Equity value | $866.44B |
| Shares | 2.57B |
| Fair value per share | $337.31 |
| Against the current price of $185.93 | +81% |
10% on a business with $9.4B of net cash, no debt and a 55% GAAP net margin, marked up for key-man risk and for the half of revenue that is terminable for convenience. 15x terminal revenue on a cash margin near 60% is about 25x cash flow - a mature compounder, and a long way below the roughly 55x forward sales the shares carry today.
Read the other way round: at $185.93 the market is paying 10.4x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | U.S. commercial | U.S. government | International commercial | International government | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $969M | $899M | $189M | $192M | $2.25B | +90% | $1.12B | $22M | $843M | +128 | $823M |
| 2026 Q4E | $1.21B | $991M | $196M | $203M | $2.60B | +85% | $1.30B | $26M | $981M | +122 | $935M |
| 2027 Q1E | $1.49B | $1.09B | $203M | $214M | $2.99B | +83% | $1.50B | $30M | $1.14B | +121 | $1.06B |
| 2027 Q2E | $1.80B | $1.18B | $211M | $225M | $3.42B | +77% | $1.73B | $34M | $1.31B | +115 | $1.19B |
| 2027 Q3E | $2.16B | $1.28B | $218M | $235M | $3.89B | +73% | $1.98B | $39M | $1.50B | +112 | $1.33B |
| 2027 Q4E | $2.56B | $1.38B | $226M | $246M | $4.41B | +70% | $2.26B | $44M | $1.71B | +109 | $1.48B |
| 2028 Q1E | $3.01B | $1.48B | $234M | $257M | $4.98B | +67% | $2.56B | $50M | $1.94B | +106 | $1.64B |
| 2028 Q2E | $3.51B | $1.58B | $241M | $269M | $5.60B | +64% | $2.89B | $56M | $2.19B | +103 | $1.81B |
| 2028 Q3E | $4.06B | $1.69B | $249M | $280M | $6.28B | +61% | $3.26B | $63M | $2.46B | +100 | $1.98B |
| 2028 Q4E | $4.67B | $1.79B | $257M | $291M | $7.01B | +59% | $3.65B | $70M | $2.76B | +98 | $2.17B |
| 2029 Q1E | $5.34B | $1.90B | $266M | $303M | $7.80B | +57% | $4.08B | $78M | $3.08B | +96 | $2.37B |
| 2029 Q2E | $6.06B | $2.01B | $274M | $315M | $8.66B | +55% | $4.54B | $87M | $3.43B | +94 | $2.58B |
| 2029 Q3E | $6.86B | $2.12B | $283M | $327M | $9.59B | +53% | $5.04B | $96M | $3.81B | +92 | $2.79B |
| 2029 Q4E | $7.73B | $2.23B | $292M | $340M | $10.59B | +51% | $5.58B | $106M | $4.22B | +91 | $3.02B |
| 2030 Q1E | $8.67B | $2.35B | $301M | $353M | $11.68B | +50% | $6.17B | $117M | $4.66B | +90 | $3.26B |
| 2030 Q2E | $9.70B | $2.47B | $310M | $366M | $12.85B | +48% | $6.80B | $128M | $5.14B | +88 | $3.51B |
| 2030 Q3E | $10.82B | $2.59B | $320M | $380M | $14.11B | +47% | $7.49B | $141M | $5.66B | +87 | $3.77B |
| 2030 Q4E | $12.04B | $2.72B | $330M | $393M | $15.48B | +46% | $8.23B | $155M | $6.22B | +86 | $4.05B |
| 2031 Q1E | $13.36B | $2.84B | $340M | $408M | $16.95B | +45% | $9.03B | $170M | $6.82B | +85 | $4.34B |
| 2031 Q2E | $14.80B | $2.98B | $350M | $423M | $18.54B | +44% | $9.89B | $185M | $7.47B | +85 | $4.64B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | all | $166.13 | First build, on the 2026 Q2 basis, from the intake brief at data/models/intake/pltr.json. |