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PLTR · Forward model · U.S. government · Bear case

What has to happen in U.S. government

Model as of

This page changes U.S. government inside the complete PLTR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PLTR forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $63.19 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.33B 22% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $12.29B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Strip the soft backlog and see what is left. The $13.1B of remaining deal value assumes every option is exercised and nothing is terminated, and Palantir says so in its own definitions. The GAAP number is $4.9B of remaining performance obligations, of which 43% - about $2.1B - is expected inside twelve months, against a guided $8.15B year. The CFO states plainly that RPO is primarily commercial, because termination-for-convenience clauses and sub-twelve-month terms keep most government work out of it. This case runs U.S. commercial expansion decelerating to a normal enterprise-software rate and government reverting toward budget growth. The revenue does not vanish; the visibility was never there to begin with.

U.S. government

Basis quarter$809M
Final quarter$1.33B
Implied CAGR+10%
Final revenue mix22%

The floor. $809M in the basis quarter, up 90% year-over-year and 18% sequentially, and still the largest single box. Defense and civil agencies running Gotham, Maven and increasingly AIP. It is sticky in practice and cancelable on paper: most of these contracts carry termination-for-convenience clauses or initial terms under twelve months, which is precisely why the $4.9B RPO is, in the CFO's words, primarily commercial. Nothing Palantir publishes gives this box a volume unit — no agency count, no seat count, no programme count — so the honest driver is a growth rate with the reason stated.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $486M Reported
2025 Q4 $570M Reported
2026 Q1 $687M Reported
2026 Q2 $809M Reported
Gotham for defense and intelligenceMaven Smart SystemAIP in civil agenciesApollo delivery and accreditation
Sequential growth +10.0%/qtr decaying toward +3.0% 10% against the 18% just delivered. Government revenue is lumpy on award timing and the last five quarters averaged 17%.
U.S. government

Latest: $1.33B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $320M
2024Q4 $343M
2025Q1 $373M
2025Q2 $426M
2025Q3 $486M
2025Q4 $570M
2026Q1 $687M
2026Q2 $809M
2026Q3E $863M
2026Q4E $914M
2027Q1E $961M
2027Q2E $1.00B
2027Q3E $1.04B
2027Q4E $1.08B
2028Q1E $1.11B
2028Q2E $1.14B
2028Q3E $1.17B
2028Q4E $1.20B
2029Q1E $1.22B
2029Q2E $1.24B
2029Q3E $1.25B
2029Q4E $1.27B
2030Q1E $1.28B
2030Q2E $1.29B
2030Q3E $1.30B
2030Q4E $1.31B
2031Q1E $1.32B
2031Q2E $1.33B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Palantir does not publish an agency count, a programme count or a seat count for government at any geography, so there is no volume unit to model. A growth driver here is a disclosure limit, not laziness.
  • The CTO put trailing-twelve-month Department of War revenue at under 25 basis points of the Pentagon budget. That is the bull framing; the bear framing is that the same budget can be reprogrammed inside a quarter.
  • Sequential growth has been unusually steady — 14%, 14%, 17%, 21%, 18% across the last five quarters — which is what makes a growth rate defensible for this line even without a driver.
  • This box barely appears in RPO. Termination-for-convenience clauses and sub-twelve-month initial terms mean the GAAP visibility number describes the commercial business, not this one.
  • A growth driver here is a disclosure limit made visible, not a modelling shortcut. If Palantir ever publishes a government agency or programme count, this line should be rebuilt on it.
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