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PLTR · Forward model · International commercial · Karp case

What has to happen in International commercial

Model as of

This page changes International commercial inside the complete PLTR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PLTR forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $337.31 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $350M 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.20B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The founder's stated commitment taken literally. Karp told the Q2 call he is driving the WHOLE business to grow at or above the U.S. commercial rate for the next eighteen months - so every box is lifted here, not just the one that is already compounding. That requires 653 accounts to keep expanding at something close to 157% net dollar retention while the account count adds only about a third a year, and it requires $2.132B of U.S. commercial TCV in a single quarter to keep repeating. What this case does NOT reach is coverage: even here, most of the revenue in the back half of the horizon comes from contracts not yet signed, because only $4.9B is non-cancelable and 43% of that lands within twelve months. It is a claim about demand, not a claim about backlog.

International commercial

Basis quarter$181M
Final quarter$350M
Implied CAGR+14%
Final revenue mix2%

The box that is not compounding. $181M in the basis quarter, up 26% year-over-year and 2% sequentially — a rate the rest of the company left behind two years ago. Same product, same AIP, and the bootcamp motion that converted U.S. enterprises has not reproduced itself in Europe. Karp said as much on the call. At under 10% of consolidated revenue it cannot rescue or sink the model, but it is the control experiment: it shows what AIP demand looks like without the U.S. sovereign-AI tailwind, and the model must not let it borrow the U.S. commercial curve.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $151M Estimated
2025 Q4 $170M Estimated
2026 Q1 $179M Estimated
2026 Q2 $181M Estimated
Foundry and AIP in European and Asian enterpriseCommercial deployments outside the United States
Sequential growth +3.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% 3% a quarter. The line grew 2% sequentially in the basis quarter and 26% over the year; this is barely generous.
International commercial

Latest: $350M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $138M
2024Q4 $158M
2025Q1 $142M
2025Q2 $145M
2025Q3 $151M
2025Q4 $170M
2026Q1 $179M
2026Q2 $181M
2026Q3E $189M
2026Q4E $196M
2027Q1E $203M
2027Q2E $211M
2027Q3E $218M
2027Q4E $226M
2028Q1E $234M
2028Q2E $241M
2028Q3E $249M
2028Q4E $257M
2029Q1E $266M
2029Q2E $274M
2029Q3E $283M
2029Q4E $292M
2030Q1E $301M
2030Q2E $310M
2030Q3E $320M
2030Q4E $330M
2031Q1E $340M
2031Q2E $350M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Twenty-six percent year-over-year and two percent sequentially. This box is growing, not compounding, and the model should not allow it to inherit the U.S. commercial expansion rate at any point in the horizon.
  • Revenue is the residual of disclosed commercial segment revenue less the disclosed U.S. commercial figure. The CFO independently stated $182M for this line on the Q2 call, which confirms the subtraction to the rounding.
  • Karp's own description of European growth on the call was that it 'sucks', and he framed continued support for European institutions as a decision against Palantir's economic interest.
  • Because the U.S. figures in the release are rounded to the million, this residual carries up to about $0.5M of rounding error per quarter — immaterial against a $181M line but worth knowing before quoting it to three decimals.
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