PLTR · Forward model · U.S. government
What has to happen in U.S. government
Model as of
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U.S. government
The floor. $809M in the basis quarter, up 90% year-over-year and 18% sequentially, and still the largest single box. Defense and civil agencies running Gotham, Maven and increasingly AIP. It is sticky in practice and cancelable on paper: most of these contracts carry termination-for-convenience clauses or initial terms under twelve months, which is precisely why the $4.9B RPO is, in the CFO's words, primarily commercial. Nothing Palantir publishes gives this box a volume unit — no agency count, no seat count, no programme count — so the honest driver is a growth rate with the reason stated.
Latest: $2.44B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $320M |
| 2024Q4 | $343M |
| 2025Q1 | $373M |
| 2025Q2 | $426M |
| 2025Q3 | $486M |
| 2025Q4 | $570M |
| 2026Q1 | $687M |
| 2026Q2 | $809M |
| 2026Q3E | $890M |
| 2026Q4E | $971M |
| 2027Q1E | $1.05B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.14B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.22B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.30B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.38B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.46B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.54B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.62B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.70B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.78B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.86B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.94B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.02B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.11B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.19B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.27B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.35B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.44B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Palantir does not publish an agency count, a programme count or a seat count for government at any geography, so there is no volume unit to model. A growth driver here is a disclosure limit, not laziness.
- The CTO put trailing-twelve-month Department of War revenue at under 25 basis points of the Pentagon budget. That is the bull framing; the bear framing is that the same budget can be reprogrammed inside a quarter.
- Sequential growth has been unusually steady — 14%, 14%, 17%, 21%, 18% across the last five quarters — which is what makes a growth rate defensible for this line even without a driver.
- This box barely appears in RPO. Termination-for-convenience clauses and sub-twelve-month initial terms mean the GAAP visibility number describes the commercial business, not this one.
- A growth driver here is a disclosure limit made visible, not a modelling shortcut. If Palantir ever publishes a government agency or programme count, this line should be rebuilt on it.