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PLTR · Forward model · International government · Karp case

What has to happen in International government

Model as of

This page changes International government inside the complete PLTR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PLTR forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $337.31 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $423M 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.33B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The founder's stated commitment taken literally. Karp told the Q2 call he is driving the WHOLE business to grow at or above the U.S. commercial rate for the next eighteen months - so every box is lifted here, not just the one that is already compounding. That requires 653 accounts to keep expanding at something close to 157% net dollar retention while the account count adds only about a third a year, and it requires $2.132B of U.S. commercial TCV in a single quarter to keep repeating. What this case does NOT reach is coverage: even here, most of the revenue in the back half of the horizon comes from contracts not yet signed, because only $4.9B is non-cancelable and 43% of that lands within twelve months. It is a claim about demand, not a claim about backlog.

International government

Basis quarter$181M
Final quarter$423M
Implied CAGR+18%
Final revenue mix2%

The smallest box and the fastest-growing of the two international lines: $181M, up 42% year-over-year and 5% sequentially. Sovereign-AI and defence budgets outside the United States — NATO members, allied intelligence and civil agencies — rather than the bootcamp-to-production motion that drives U.S. commercial. It runs on the same termination-for-convenience terms as the U.S. government book, so it is equally absent from RPO, and at roughly 9% of consolidated revenue it cannot change the answer on its own.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $147M Estimated
2025 Q4 $160M Estimated
2026 Q1 $171M Estimated
2026 Q2 $181M Estimated
Allied defence and intelligence agenciesNon-U.S. civil government deployments
Sequential growth +5.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% 5% against 5% delivered in the basis quarter and 42% over the year. Sovereign defence budgets, not AIP conversion.
International government

Latest: $423M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $88M
2024Q4 $112M
2025Q1 $114M
2025Q2 $127M
2025Q3 $147M
2025Q4 $160M
2026Q1 $171M
2026Q2 $181M
2026Q3E $192M
2026Q4E $203M
2027Q1E $214M
2027Q2E $225M
2027Q3E $235M
2027Q4E $246M
2028Q1E $257M
2028Q2E $269M
2028Q3E $280M
2028Q4E $291M
2029Q1E $303M
2029Q2E $315M
2029Q3E $327M
2029Q4E $340M
2030Q1E $353M
2030Q2E $366M
2030Q3E $380M
2030Q4E $393M
2031Q1E $408M
2031Q2E $423M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Forty-two percent year-over-year, faster than international commercial, and driven by sovereign-AI and allied defence budgets rather than by any AIP bootcamp conversion motion.
  • Same residual method as international commercial, and the same absence of a volume unit; no agency counts are published for any geography, so this line is a growth rate by necessity.
  • At $181M a quarter this is roughly 9% of consolidated revenue. Even a doubling or a halving moves the fair value by less than the choice of exit multiple does.
  • Like the U.S. government box, these contracts are largely terminable for convenience, so this revenue is effectively absent from the $4.9B of remaining performance obligations.
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