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PLTR · Forward model · International government · Bear case

What has to happen in International government

Model as of

This page changes International government inside the complete PLTR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PLTR forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $63.19 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $188M 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $2.03B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Strip the soft backlog and see what is left. The $13.1B of remaining deal value assumes every option is exercised and nothing is terminated, and Palantir says so in its own definitions. The GAAP number is $4.9B of remaining performance obligations, of which 43% - about $2.1B - is expected inside twelve months, against a guided $8.15B year. The CFO states plainly that RPO is primarily commercial, because termination-for-convenience clauses and sub-twelve-month terms keep most government work out of it. This case runs U.S. commercial expansion decelerating to a normal enterprise-software rate and government reverting toward budget growth. The revenue does not vanish; the visibility was never there to begin with.

International government

Basis quarter$181M
Final quarter$188M
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix3%

The smallest box and the fastest-growing of the two international lines: $181M, up 42% year-over-year and 5% sequentially. Sovereign-AI and defence budgets outside the United States — NATO members, allied intelligence and civil agencies — rather than the bootcamp-to-production motion that drives U.S. commercial. It runs on the same termination-for-convenience terms as the U.S. government book, so it is equally absent from RPO, and at roughly 9% of consolidated revenue it cannot change the answer on its own.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $147M Estimated
2025 Q4 $160M Estimated
2026 Q1 $171M Estimated
2026 Q2 $181M Estimated
Allied defence and intelligence agenciesNon-U.S. civil government deployments
Sequential growth +5.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% 5% against 5% delivered in the basis quarter and 42% over the year. Sovereign defence budgets, not AIP conversion.
International government

Latest: $188M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $88M
2024Q4 $112M
2025Q1 $114M
2025Q2 $127M
2025Q3 $147M
2025Q4 $160M
2026Q1 $171M
2026Q2 $181M
2026Q3E $184M
2026Q4E $187M
2027Q1E $189M
2027Q2E $191M
2027Q3E $192M
2027Q4E $193M
2028Q1E $194M
2028Q2E $194M
2028Q3E $195M
2028Q4E $195M
2029Q1E $194M
2029Q2E $194M
2029Q3E $194M
2029Q4E $193M
2030Q1E $192M
2030Q2E $192M
2030Q3E $191M
2030Q4E $190M
2031Q1E $189M
2031Q2E $188M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Forty-two percent year-over-year, faster than international commercial, and driven by sovereign-AI and allied defence budgets rather than by any AIP bootcamp conversion motion.
  • Same residual method as international commercial, and the same absence of a volume unit; no agency counts are published for any geography, so this line is a growth rate by necessity.
  • At $181M a quarter this is roughly 9% of consolidated revenue. Even a doubling or a halving moves the fair value by less than the choice of exit multiple does.
  • Like the U.S. government box, these contracts are largely terminable for convenience, so this revenue is effectively absent from the $4.9B of remaining performance obligations.
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