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PLTR · Forward model · International government · Bull case

What has to happen in International government

Model as of

This page changes International government inside the complete PLTR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PLTR forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $243.19 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $346M 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $2.95B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Not the founder's claim - just the booked pipeline converting. Net dollar retention of 157% and a U.S. commercial remaining deal value of $6.238B, up 124%, are both facts about contracts already signed, and the pattern behind them is repeatable: an account starts at one operating unit and converts to a portfolio-wide contract, as one multinational technology customer did at nearly $370M over three years. This case holds revenue per account expanding for longer than base allows before it glides down, and lets government keep a little of its current pace. What it does NOT assume is any acceleration - the expansion rate still decays throughout, it just decays more slowly, and no new-logo growth beyond the 35% a year already running.

International government

Basis quarter$181M
Final quarter$346M
Implied CAGR+14%
Final revenue mix2%

The smallest box and the fastest-growing of the two international lines: $181M, up 42% year-over-year and 5% sequentially. Sovereign-AI and defence budgets outside the United States — NATO members, allied intelligence and civil agencies — rather than the bootcamp-to-production motion that drives U.S. commercial. It runs on the same termination-for-convenience terms as the U.S. government book, so it is equally absent from RPO, and at roughly 9% of consolidated revenue it cannot change the answer on its own.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $147M Estimated
2025 Q4 $160M Estimated
2026 Q1 $171M Estimated
2026 Q2 $181M Estimated
Allied defence and intelligence agenciesNon-U.S. civil government deployments
Sequential growth +5.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% 5% against 5% delivered in the basis quarter and 42% over the year. Sovereign defence budgets, not AIP conversion.
International government

Latest: $346M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $88M
2024Q4 $112M
2025Q1 $114M
2025Q2 $127M
2025Q3 $147M
2025Q4 $160M
2026Q1 $171M
2026Q2 $181M
2026Q3E $190M
2026Q4E $199M
2027Q1E $207M
2027Q2E $216M
2027Q3E $224M
2027Q4E $232M
2028Q1E $240M
2028Q2E $248M
2028Q3E $256M
2028Q4E $264M
2029Q1E $272M
2029Q2E $280M
2029Q3E $288M
2029Q4E $296M
2030Q1E $304M
2030Q2E $312M
2030Q3E $320M
2030Q4E $329M
2031Q1E $338M
2031Q2E $346M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Forty-two percent year-over-year, faster than international commercial, and driven by sovereign-AI and allied defence budgets rather than by any AIP bootcamp conversion motion.
  • Same residual method as international commercial, and the same absence of a volume unit; no agency counts are published for any geography, so this line is a growth rate by necessity.
  • At $181M a quarter this is roughly 9% of consolidated revenue. Even a doubling or a halving moves the fair value by less than the choice of exit multiple does.
  • Like the U.S. government box, these contracts are largely terminable for convenience, so this revenue is effectively absent from the $4.9B of remaining performance obligations.
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