PLTR · Forward model · International commercial
What has to happen in International commercial
Model as of
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International commercial
The box that is not compounding. $181M in the basis quarter, up 26% year-over-year and 2% sequentially — a rate the rest of the company left behind two years ago. Same product, same AIP, and the bootcamp motion that converted U.S. enterprises has not reproduced itself in Europe. Karp said as much on the call. At under 10% of consolidated revenue it cannot rescue or sink the model, but it is the control experiment: it shows what AIP demand looks like without the U.S. sovereign-AI tailwind, and the model must not let it borrow the U.S. commercial curve.
Latest: $287M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $138M |
| 2024Q4 | $158M |
| 2025Q1 | $142M |
| 2025Q2 | $145M |
| 2025Q3 | $151M |
| 2025Q4 | $170M |
| 2026Q1 | $179M |
| 2026Q2 | $181M |
| 2026Q3E | $187M |
| 2026Q4E | $192M |
| 2027Q1E | $197M |
| 2027Q2E | $203M |
| 2027Q3E | $208M |
| 2027Q4E | $213M |
| 2028Q1E | $218M |
| 2028Q2E | $223M |
| 2028Q3E | $228M |
| 2028Q4E | $233M |
| 2029Q1E | $238M |
| 2029Q2E | $243M |
| 2029Q3E | $249M |
| 2029Q4E | $254M |
| 2030Q1E | $259M |
| 2030Q2E | $265M |
| 2030Q3E | $270M |
| 2030Q4E | $276M |
| 2031Q1E | $281M |
| 2031Q2E | $287M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Twenty-six percent year-over-year and two percent sequentially. This box is growing, not compounding, and the model should not allow it to inherit the U.S. commercial expansion rate at any point in the horizon.
- Revenue is the residual of disclosed commercial segment revenue less the disclosed U.S. commercial figure. The CFO independently stated $182M for this line on the Q2 call, which confirms the subtraction to the rounding.
- Karp's own description of European growth on the call was that it 'sucks', and he framed continued support for European institutions as a decision against Palantir's economic interest.
- Because the U.S. figures in the release are rounded to the million, this residual carries up to about $0.5M of rounding error per quarter — immaterial against a $181M line but worth knowing before quoting it to three decimals.