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PLTR · Forward model · International commercial · Bear case

What has to happen in International commercial

Model as of

This page changes International commercial inside the complete PLTR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PLTR forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $63.19 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $156M 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.99B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Strip the soft backlog and see what is left. The $13.1B of remaining deal value assumes every option is exercised and nothing is terminated, and Palantir says so in its own definitions. The GAAP number is $4.9B of remaining performance obligations, of which 43% - about $2.1B - is expected inside twelve months, against a guided $8.15B year. The CFO states plainly that RPO is primarily commercial, because termination-for-convenience clauses and sub-twelve-month terms keep most government work out of it. This case runs U.S. commercial expansion decelerating to a normal enterprise-software rate and government reverting toward budget growth. The revenue does not vanish; the visibility was never there to begin with.

International commercial

Basis quarter$181M
Final quarter$156M
Implied CAGR−3%
Final revenue mix3%

The box that is not compounding. $181M in the basis quarter, up 26% year-over-year and 2% sequentially — a rate the rest of the company left behind two years ago. Same product, same AIP, and the bootcamp motion that converted U.S. enterprises has not reproduced itself in Europe. Karp said as much on the call. At under 10% of consolidated revenue it cannot rescue or sink the model, but it is the control experiment: it shows what AIP demand looks like without the U.S. sovereign-AI tailwind, and the model must not let it borrow the U.S. commercial curve.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $151M Estimated
2025 Q4 $170M Estimated
2026 Q1 $179M Estimated
2026 Q2 $181M Estimated
Foundry and AIP in European and Asian enterpriseCommercial deployments outside the United States
Sequential growth +3.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% 3% a quarter. The line grew 2% sequentially in the basis quarter and 26% over the year; this is barely generous.
International commercial

Latest: $156M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $138M
2024Q4 $158M
2025Q1 $142M
2025Q2 $145M
2025Q3 $151M
2025Q4 $170M
2026Q1 $179M
2026Q2 $181M
2026Q3E $181M
2026Q4E $181M
2027Q1E $180M
2027Q2E $179M
2027Q3E $178M
2027Q4E $177M
2028Q1E $176M
2028Q2E $175M
2028Q3E $173M
2028Q4E $172M
2029Q1E $170M
2029Q2E $169M
2029Q3E $167M
2029Q4E $166M
2030Q1E $164M
2030Q2E $163M
2030Q3E $161M
2030Q4E $159M
2031Q1E $158M
2031Q2E $156M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Twenty-six percent year-over-year and two percent sequentially. This box is growing, not compounding, and the model should not allow it to inherit the U.S. commercial expansion rate at any point in the horizon.
  • Revenue is the residual of disclosed commercial segment revenue less the disclosed U.S. commercial figure. The CFO independently stated $182M for this line on the Q2 call, which confirms the subtraction to the rounding.
  • Karp's own description of European growth on the call was that it 'sucks', and he framed continued support for European institutions as a decision against Palantir's economic interest.
  • Because the U.S. figures in the release are rounded to the million, this residual carries up to about $0.5M of rounding error per quarter — immaterial against a $181M line but worth knowing before quoting it to three decimals.
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