PG · Forward model · Health Care
What has to happen in Health Care
Model as of
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Health Care
Basis quarter$2.76B
Final quarter$2.98B
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix13%
Oral Care (Crest, Oral-B) and Personal Health Care (Vicks, Metamucil, Pepto-Bismol). The most seasonal line in the company.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$3.22B
Reported
2025 Q4
$3.41B
Reported
2026 Q1
$3.07B
Reported
2026 Q2
$2.76B
Reported
Oral Care (Toothbrushes, Toothpastes, Other Oral Care)Personal Health Care (Gastrointestinal, Pain Relief, Rapid Diagnostics, Respiratory, Vitamins/Minerals/Supplements)
Sequential growth
+0.4%/qtr
decaying toward +0.4%
0.38%/qtr: eight-quarter compound growth of deseasonalised Health Care net sales, after removing the flu shape.
Health Care
Latest: $2.98B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q3 | $2.68B |
| 2021Q4 | $2.98B |
| 2022Q1 | $2.66B |
| 2022Q2 | $2.51B |
| 2022Q3 | $2.76B |
| 2022Q4 | $3.05B |
| 2023Q1 | $2.83B |
| 2023Q2 | $2.59B |
| 2023Q3 | $3.07B |
| 2023Q4 | $3.17B |
| 2024Q1 | $2.87B |
| 2024Q2 | $2.67B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.15B |
| 2024Q4 | $3.25B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.88B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.72B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.22B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.41B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.07B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.76B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.18B |
| 2026Q4E | $3.35B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.02B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.80B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.23B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.41B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.07B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.84B |
| 2028Q3E | $3.28B |
| 2028Q4E | $3.46B |
| 2029Q1E | $3.11B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.89B |
| 2029Q3E | $3.33B |
| 2029Q4E | $3.51B |
| 2030Q1E | $3.16B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.93B |
| 2030Q3E | $3.39B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.57B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.21B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.98B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. No dollar split between Oral Care and Personal Health Care is disclosed and none is manufactured.
- The four seasonal factors are the largest and most economically legible shape in the company: October-December peaks at 1.087 and April-June troughs at 0.901, which is the cold, flu and respiratory season in Personal Health Care. The 10-K names Personal Health Care as a seasonal component while saying no reportable segment is highly seasonal, and both statements are consistent with an 18.7-point amplitude on a 2.5-point window-to-window spread.
- The 28.92% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $3,163m + depreciation and amortisation $439m) / net sales $12,456m. Health Care organic sales fell 1% in the June quarter, with Oral Care down mid single digits on volume declines in North America and Greater China.