PG · Forward model · Baby, Feminine & Family Care
What has to happen in Baby, Feminine & Family Care
Model as of
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Baby, Feminine & Family Care
Basis quarter$5.05B
Final quarter$5.15B
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix23%
Pampers, Always, Whisper, Bounty, Charmin. The only segment whose revenue is lower today than it was two years ago on a deseasonalised basis.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$5.17B
Reported
2025 Q4
$5.12B
Reported
2026 Q1
$5.06B
Reported
2026 Q2
$5.05B
Reported
Baby Care (Baby Wipes, Taped Diapers and Pants)Feminine Care (Adult Incontinence, Menstrual Care)Family Care (Paper Towels, Tissues, Toilet Paper)
Sequential growth
+0.1%/qtr
decaying toward +0.1%
0.10%/qtr: eight-quarter compound growth. The trailing four-quarter rate is worse still, at -0.22% a quarter.
Baby, Feminine & Family Care
Latest: $5.15B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q3 | $4.86B |
| 2021Q4 | $5.12B |
| 2022Q1 | $4.93B |
| 2022Q2 | $4.82B |
| 2022Q3 | $4.93B |
| 2022Q4 | $5.07B |
| 2023Q1 | $5.06B |
| 2023Q2 | $5.16B |
| 2023Q3 | $5.19B |
| 2023Q4 | $5.15B |
| 2024Q1 | $4.94B |
| 2024Q2 | $5.01B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.10B |
| 2024Q4 | $5.30B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.75B |
| 2025Q2 | $5.09B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.17B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.12B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.06B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.05B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.05B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.06B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.06B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.07B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.07B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.08B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.08B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.09B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.09B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.10B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.10B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.11B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.11B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.12B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.12B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.13B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.13B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.14B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.14B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.15B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Left aseasonal on the evidence, not for want of testing. The derived amplitude is 4.2 points while the window-to-window spread is 3.8 points and the within-quarter spread reaches 6.1 points: the noise exceeds the signal on every test, and the apparent October-December tilt is carried entirely by the 2024-2025 window and absent from 2022-2023.
- Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. Pampers, Always, Whisper, Bounty and Charmin sit inside one reportable segment with no disclosed dollar split.
- The 29.31% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $5,145m + depreciation and amortisation $835m) / net sales $20,401m. Capital intensity is the highest in the portfolio at 7.45% of net sales - paper and diaper converting lines - so a line whose organic sales fell 2% in the June quarter still consumes cash.