← PG forward model

PG · Forward model · Baby, Feminine & Family Care

What has to happen in Baby, Feminine & Family Care

Model as of

This page changes Baby, Feminine & Family Care inside the complete PG model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PG forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $133.02 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $5.15B 23% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $18.75B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Baby, Feminine & Family Care

Basis quarter$5.05B
Final quarter$5.15B
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix23%

Pampers, Always, Whisper, Bounty, Charmin. The only segment whose revenue is lower today than it was two years ago on a deseasonalised basis.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $5.17B Reported
2025 Q4 $5.12B Reported
2026 Q1 $5.06B Reported
2026 Q2 $5.05B Reported
Baby Care (Baby Wipes, Taped Diapers and Pants)Feminine Care (Adult Incontinence, Menstrual Care)Family Care (Paper Towels, Tissues, Toilet Paper)
Sequential growth +0.1%/qtr decaying toward +0.1% 0.10%/qtr: eight-quarter compound growth. The trailing four-quarter rate is worse still, at -0.22% a quarter.
Baby, Feminine & Family Care

Latest: $5.15B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2021Q3 $4.86B
2021Q4 $5.12B
2022Q1 $4.93B
2022Q2 $4.82B
2022Q3 $4.93B
2022Q4 $5.07B
2023Q1 $5.06B
2023Q2 $5.16B
2023Q3 $5.19B
2023Q4 $5.15B
2024Q1 $4.94B
2024Q2 $5.01B
2024Q3 $5.10B
2024Q4 $5.30B
2025Q1 $4.75B
2025Q2 $5.09B
2025Q3 $5.17B
2025Q4 $5.12B
2026Q1 $5.06B
2026Q2 $5.05B
2026Q3E $5.05B
2026Q4E $5.06B
2027Q1E $5.06B
2027Q2E $5.07B
2027Q3E $5.07B
2027Q4E $5.08B
2028Q1E $5.08B
2028Q2E $5.09B
2028Q3E $5.09B
2028Q4E $5.10B
2029Q1E $5.10B
2029Q2E $5.11B
2029Q3E $5.11B
2029Q4E $5.12B
2030Q1E $5.12B
2030Q2E $5.13B
2030Q3E $5.13B
2030Q4E $5.14B
2031Q1E $5.14B
2031Q2E $5.15B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Left aseasonal on the evidence, not for want of testing. The derived amplitude is 4.2 points while the window-to-window spread is 3.8 points and the within-quarter spread reaches 6.1 points: the noise exceeds the signal on every test, and the apparent October-December tilt is carried entirely by the 2024-2025 window and absent from 2022-2023.
  • Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. Pampers, Always, Whisper, Bounty and Charmin sit inside one reportable segment with no disclosed dollar split.
  • The 29.31% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $5,145m + depreciation and amortisation $835m) / net sales $20,401m. Capital intensity is the highest in the portfolio at 7.45% of net sales - paper and diaper converting lines - so a line whose organic sales fell 2% in the June quarter still consumes cash.
PG model map

Explore another vertical