PG · Forward model · Grooming · Jejurikar case

The new CEO's own framing, taken literally. Shailesh Jejurikar took over in January 2026 and told the July call that P&G would accelerate growth from semester to semester, with the cost headwind anniversaried by the back half. This case leaves the first half of fiscal 2027 exactly on the trailing run-rate while the $1bn after-tax cost vintage sits in it, then steps the five operating segments up 2.56% in level from the January-March 2027 quarter onward - Corporate is left alone, because an overhead residual should not be stepped up with the operating lines. The second half then prints $43.71bn, 3.0% above the same half of fiscal 2026, which is the top of the guided range; the year lands at $88.52bn, +1.70%. What this case does NOT reach is the guidance midpoint of about $88.77bn: a first half held at the trailing rate is too big a hole for one good half to fill, and getting there would need the second half to run above the top of the guided range. Fair value is $136.65, still 5.8% below the price, because a shaped year at 15x is worth about $3.60 a share more than a flat one, not $12.