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KO · Forward model · North America · Bull case

What has to happen in North America

Model as of

This page changes North America inside the complete KO model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

KO forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $98.53 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $7.05B 45% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $30.87B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Guidance has been raised twice in 2026 and the raises landed on the earnings line rather than on volume. Comparable EPS growth went from 7% to 8% on 10 February, to 8% to 9% on 28 April, to 9% to 10% on 28 July, while organic revenue only moved to the top of an unchanged 4% to 5% range. That is margin and mix. Comparable operating margin reached 35.6% against 34.7%, free cash flow guidance rose to approximately $12.4bn, and the underlying tax rate improved from 20.9% at the February guide to 19.9%. This case takes the bottom of the derived African bottling range and holds the exit multiple at roughly where the shares trade today.

North America

Basis quarter$5.41B
Final quarter$7.05B
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix45%

The United States and Canada, the largest vertical at $5,405M of third-party revenue, 40.4% of the group, and the only geographic segment carrying material capital expenditure at 3.3% of its own revenue. In 2026 Q2 reported revenue grew 7% on concentrate sales +3 and price/mix +4, with no currency and no structural effect at all: the cleanest organic line in the company.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $5.25B Reported
2025 Q4 $4.94B Estimated
2026 Q1 $4.89B Reported
2026 Q2 $5.41B Reported
Concentrate sales to United States and Canadian bottlersFinished product operations including fairlife, BODYARMOR, Minute Maid and fountain syrupsMonster distribution coordination fees
Sequential growth +1.3%/qtr decaying toward +0.9% 1.31% is the 2024 Q2 to 2026 Q2 compound quarterly rate on the deseasonalised level.
North America

Latest: $7.05B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $4.22B
2024Q2 $4.87B
2024Q3 $5.04B
2024Q4 $4.73B
2025Q1 $4.36B
2025Q2 $5.03B
2025Q3 $5.25B
2025Q4 $4.94B
2026Q1 $4.89B
2026Q2 $5.41B
2026Q3E $5.71B
2026Q4E $5.19B
2027Q1E $5.08B
2027Q2E $5.74B
2027Q3E $6.05B
2027Q4E $5.50B
2028Q1E $5.37B
2028Q2E $6.07B
2028Q3E $6.39B
2028Q4E $5.80B
2029Q1E $5.66B
2029Q2E $6.39B
2029Q3E $6.72B
2029Q4E $6.10B
2030Q1E $5.94B
2030Q2E $6.71B
2030Q3E $7.06B
2030Q4E $6.40B
2031Q1E $6.24B
2031Q2E $7.05B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The cleanest seasonal shape in the group: amplitude 0.147 against a worst-case window-to-window spread of 0.013, roughly eleven times the noise, with the summer peak and the Q1 trough repeating in both windows.
  • The 2025 BodyArmor trademark impairment of $960M was attributed to a slowing projected long-term growth rate for the category and an intensifying competitive environment. That is a disclosed management markdown of one of this vertical's growth engines and it is not separately modelled here.
  • United States unit case volume is about 16% of worldwide volume against roughly 40% of revenue, so this line depends on price and mix holding rather than on cases.
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