KO · Forward model · North America · Bear case

The second half gives back what the calendar gave. Coca-Cola's own guidance implies a comparable revenue bridge of roughly +5 organic, +1 currency and -2 to -3 from acquisitions and divestitures; consensus turns that into FY2026 revenue of $49.72bn, which against first-half actuals of $25,852M leaves $23,868M for the second half - a 1.7% decline after a first half that grew 9.2%. Two disclosed mechanisms do it: six fewer days in 2026 Q4 than in 2025 Q4, and the African bottling deconsolidation. FY2027 consensus revenue of $49.82bn is 0.2% above FY2026, so the sell side does not expect the lost revenue back. This case takes the top of the derived $1.0-1.4bn African bottling range, trims the compounding growth of every line and marks the exit multiple down to 17x.