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What has to happen in Bottling Investments

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KO forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $98.53 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $554M 4% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $671M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Guidance has been raised twice in 2026 and the raises landed on the earnings line rather than on volume. Comparable EPS growth went from 7% to 8% on 10 February, to 8% to 9% on 28 April, to 9% to 10% on 28 July, while organic revenue only moved to the top of an unchanged 4% to 5% range. That is margin and mix. Comparable operating margin reached 35.6% against 34.7%, free cash flow guidance rose to approximately $12.4bn, and the underlying tax rate improved from 20.9% at the February guide to 19.9%. This case takes the bottom of the derived African bottling range and holds the exit multiple at roughly where the shares trade today.

Bottling Investments

Basis quarter$1.52B
Final quarter$554M
Implied CAGR−18%
Final revenue mix4%

The consolidated bottling operations Coca-Cola still owns outright, principally Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, which is under a definitive agreement to be sold to Coca-Cola HBC with closing expected by the end of 2026. $1,525M of third-party revenue at an 11.6% EBITDA margin and 6.0% capital intensity: the finished-product economics the rest of the company has spent a decade refranchising away. This line shrinks structurally, not cyclically.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.34B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.51B Estimated
2026 Q1 $1.64B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.52B Reported
Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, classified as held for saleOther consolidated bottling operations
Sequential growth −0.1%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% -0.10% is the 2024 Q2 to 2026 Q2 compound quarterly rate: this book has been flat to shrinking for two years.
Bottling Investments

Latest: $554M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $1.81B
2024Q2 $1.54B
2024Q3 $1.31B
2024Q4 $1.55B
2025Q1 $1.46B
2025Q2 $1.41B
2025Q3 $1.34B
2025Q4 $1.51B
2026Q1 $1.64B
2026Q2 $1.52B
2026Q3E $1.53B
2026Q4E $527M
2027Q1E $528M
2027Q2E $529M
2027Q3E $531M
2027Q4E $532M
2028Q1E $534M
2028Q2E $535M
2028Q3E $537M
2028Q4E $538M
2029Q1E $540M
2029Q2E $541M
2029Q3E $543M
2029Q4E $545M
2030Q1E $546M
2030Q2E $548M
2030Q3E $549M
2030Q4E $551M
2031Q1E $553M
2031Q2E $554M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The one-off step of -74% dated to the second projected quarter is the African bottling deconsolidation. It removes $1,127M of quarterly revenue, which is the average of the two independent bounds the research derived: $1,199M from the shrinking full-year acquisitions-and-divestitures guidance, and about $1,060M from the second-half consensus arithmetic. Coca-Cola does not disclose Coca-Cola Beverages Africa's standalone revenue, so this figure is assumed inside a $1.0-1.4bn range and nothing more.
  • The step lands after one quarter rather than at the basis quarter because the company's own third-quarter considerations carry only about one point of acquisitions-and-divestitures headwind. The exit is a fourth-quarter event on what has been filed, and dating it is what keeps 2026 Q3 from being written down a quarter early.
  • Left aseasonal deliberately. The fitted amplitude of 0.239 sits against a worst-case window spread of 0.129 and the Q1 and Q3 factors move in opposite directions between the two windows: that variation is refranchising in Nigeria, India and Ghana and the Africa held-for-sale reclassification, not season.
  • The bear and bull cases move this step to the two ends of the derived range rather than moving a growth rate, because a deconsolidation is a level event on a date and not a rate.
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