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KO · Forward model · Asia Pacific · Bull case

What has to happen in Asia Pacific

Model as of

This page changes Asia Pacific inside the complete KO model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

KO forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $98.53 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.85B 12% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $11.31B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Guidance has been raised twice in 2026 and the raises landed on the earnings line rather than on volume. Comparable EPS growth went from 7% to 8% on 10 February, to 8% to 9% on 28 April, to 9% to 10% on 28 July, while organic revenue only moved to the top of an unchanged 4% to 5% range. That is margin and mix. Comparable operating margin reached 35.6% against 34.7%, free cash flow guidance rose to approximately $12.4bn, and the underlying tax rate improved from 20.9% at the February guide to 19.9%. This case takes the bottom of the derived African bottling range and holds the exit multiple at roughly where the shares trade today.

Asia Pacific

Basis quarter$1.49B
Final quarter$1.85B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix12%

India, China, Japan, ASEAN and the rest of Asia Pacific: $1,487M of third-party revenue plus $94M of intersegment revenue that is deliberately excluded here. Volume-led and price-poor. In 2026 Q2 concentrate sales grew 11% against price/mix of -9%, for reported revenue growth of 1% on unit case volume growth of 8%. India and China led the company's 5% global volume growth.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.44B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.10B Estimated
2026 Q1 $1.43B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.49B Reported
Concentrate sales to bottling partners in India, China, Japan and ASEANFinished product operations in certain territories
Sequential growth +0.8%/qtr decaying toward +0.8% 0.79% is the 2024 Q2 to 2026 Q2 compound quarterly rate on the deseasonalised level.
Asia Pacific

Latest: $1.85B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $1.26B
2024Q2 $1.40B
2024Q3 $1.28B
2024Q4 $1.18B
2025Q1 $1.32B
2025Q2 $1.46B
2025Q3 $1.44B
2025Q4 $1.10B
2026Q1 $1.43B
2026Q2 $1.49B
2026Q3E $1.43B
2026Q4E $1.16B
2027Q1E $1.44B
2027Q2E $1.55B
2027Q3E $1.49B
2027Q4E $1.21B
2028Q1E $1.50B
2028Q2E $1.62B
2028Q3E $1.56B
2028Q4E $1.26B
2029Q1E $1.57B
2029Q2E $1.70B
2029Q3E $1.63B
2029Q4E $1.32B
2030Q1E $1.64B
2030Q2E $1.77B
2030Q3E $1.70B
2030Q4E $1.38B
2031Q1E $1.71B
2031Q2E $1.85B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The Q4 factor is the least stable number in this model. The two annual windows put it at 0.886 and 0.783, a spread of 0.103 against an amplitude of 0.261. The shipped vector uses the 0.835 average: the direction of the Q4 trough is reliable, its depth is not, and the vertical is 11% of group revenue so the bounded error is about 0.6% of the group.
  • Volume is arriving and revenue per case is not. Price/mix has been negative and the terminal growth rate of 0.8% a quarter assumes that continues to offset most of the volume leverage rather than assuming it resolves.
  • Segment capital expenditure was zero in the basis quarter, so the capex intensity is an honest zero rather than an omission.
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