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KO · Forward model · Europe, Middle East & Africa · Bull case

What has to happen in Europe, Middle East & Africa

Model as of

This page changes Europe, Middle East & Africa inside the complete KO model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

KO forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $98.53 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.77B 24% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $21.91B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Guidance has been raised twice in 2026 and the raises landed on the earnings line rather than on volume. Comparable EPS growth went from 7% to 8% on 10 February, to 8% to 9% on 28 April, to 9% to 10% on 28 July, while organic revenue only moved to the top of an unchanged 4% to 5% range. That is margin and mix. Comparable operating margin reached 35.6% against 34.7%, free cash flow guidance rose to approximately $12.4bn, and the underlying tax rate improved from 20.9% at the February guide to 19.9%. This case takes the bottom of the derived African bottling range and holds the exit multiple at roughly where the shares trade today.

Europe, Middle East & Africa

Basis quarter$3.09B
Final quarter$3.77B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix24%

Concentrate and finished-product sales across Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East and Africa, plus Costa (excluding ready-to-drink), innocent and dogadan, which moved here when Global Ventures was sunset on 1 January 2025. $3,087M of third-party revenue in the basis quarter, 23.1% of the group. In 2026 Q2 reported revenue grew 2% on concentrate sales +1, price/mix +1, currency +2 and acquisitions and divestitures -3.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.82B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.53B Estimated
2026 Q1 $2.81B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.09B Reported
Concentrate sales to bottling partners in Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East and AfricaCosta, excluding the ready-to-drink businessinnocentdogadanFinished product operations in certain territories
Sequential growth +0.9%/qtr decaying toward +0.6% 0.90% is the 2024 Q2 to 2026 Q2 compound quarterly rate, like calendar quarter to like calendar quarter.
Europe, Middle East & Africa

Latest: $3.77B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $2.44B
2024Q2 $2.87B
2024Q3 $2.56B
2024Q4 $2.42B
2025Q1 $2.48B
2025Q2 $3.01B
2025Q3 $2.82B
2025Q4 $2.53B
2026Q1 $2.81B
2026Q2 $3.09B
2026Q3E $2.85B
2026Q4E $2.53B
2027Q1E $2.76B
2027Q2E $3.23B
2027Q3E $2.98B
2027Q4E $2.64B
2028Q1E $2.88B
2028Q2E $3.37B
2028Q3E $3.10B
2028Q4E $2.75B
2029Q1E $3.00B
2029Q2E $3.50B
2029Q3E $3.22B
2029Q4E $2.85B
2030Q1E $3.11B
2030Q2E $3.63B
2030Q3E $3.35B
2030Q4E $2.96B
2031Q1E $3.23B
2031Q2E $3.77B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q4 points are derived, not reported: full-year recast third-party revenue from the FY2025 10-K segment note less the nine-month figure in the matching Q3 10-Q ($10,278M less $7,863M, and $10,833M less $8,307M). They are flagged estimated for that reason.
  • Seasonality is day-normalised before it is fitted, because Coca-Cola's quarters are not equal in length. The amplitude is 0.223 against a worst-case window-to-window spread of 0.043, and both 2024 and 2025 agree on a Q2 peak and a Q4 trough.
  • Reported revenue here is materially more volatile than organic revenue: Turkish lira and Egyptian pound exposure, and a continuing structural headwind from the 2025 sale of the Nigeria finished-product operations.
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