KO · Forward model · North America
What has to happen in North America
Model as of
This page changes North America inside the complete KO model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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North America
Basis quarter$5.41B
Final quarter$6.64B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix45%
The United States and Canada, the largest vertical at $5,405M of third-party revenue, 40.4% of the group, and the only geographic segment carrying material capital expenditure at 3.3% of its own revenue. In 2026 Q2 reported revenue grew 7% on concentrate sales +3 and price/mix +4, with no currency and no structural effect at all: the cleanest organic line in the company.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$5.25B
Reported
2025 Q4
$4.94B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$4.89B
Reported
2026 Q2
$5.41B
Reported
Concentrate sales to United States and Canadian bottlersFinished product operations including fairlife, BODYARMOR, Minute Maid and fountain syrupsMonster distribution coordination fees
Sequential growth
+1.3%/qtr
decaying toward +0.9%
1.31% is the 2024 Q2 to 2026 Q2 compound quarterly rate on the deseasonalised level.
North America
Latest: $6.64B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $4.22B |
| 2024Q2 | $4.87B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.04B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.73B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.36B |
| 2025Q2 | $5.03B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.25B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.94B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.89B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.41B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.69B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.16B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.03B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.68B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.96B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.40B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.26B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.92B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.22B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.63B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.47B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.16B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.46B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.85B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.68B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.40B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.71B |
| 2030Q4E | $6.07B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.90B |
| 2031Q2E | $6.64B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The cleanest seasonal shape in the group: amplitude 0.147 against a worst-case window-to-window spread of 0.013, roughly eleven times the noise, with the summer peak and the Q1 trough repeating in both windows.
- The 2025 BodyArmor trademark impairment of $960M was attributed to a slowing projected long-term growth rate for the category and an intensifying competitive environment. That is a disclosed management markdown of one of this vertical's growth engines and it is not separately modelled here.
- United States unit case volume is about 16% of worldwide volume against roughly 40% of revenue, so this line depends on price and mix holding rather than on cases.