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KO · Forward model · Europe, Middle East & Africa · Bear case

What has to happen in Europe, Middle East & Africa

Model as of

This page changes Europe, Middle East & Africa inside the complete KO model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

KO forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $59.38 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.31B 25% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $19.34B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The second half gives back what the calendar gave. Coca-Cola's own guidance implies a comparable revenue bridge of roughly +5 organic, +1 currency and -2 to -3 from acquisitions and divestitures; consensus turns that into FY2026 revenue of $49.72bn, which against first-half actuals of $25,852M leaves $23,868M for the second half - a 1.7% decline after a first half that grew 9.2%. Two disclosed mechanisms do it: six fewer days in 2026 Q4 than in 2025 Q4, and the African bottling deconsolidation. FY2027 consensus revenue of $49.82bn is 0.2% above FY2026, so the sell side does not expect the lost revenue back. This case takes the top of the derived $1.0-1.4bn African bottling range, trims the compounding growth of every line and marks the exit multiple down to 17x.

Europe, Middle East & Africa

Basis quarter$3.09B
Final quarter$3.31B
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix25%

Concentrate and finished-product sales across Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East and Africa, plus Costa (excluding ready-to-drink), innocent and dogadan, which moved here when Global Ventures was sunset on 1 January 2025. $3,087M of third-party revenue in the basis quarter, 23.1% of the group. In 2026 Q2 reported revenue grew 2% on concentrate sales +1, price/mix +1, currency +2 and acquisitions and divestitures -3.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.82B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.53B Estimated
2026 Q1 $2.81B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.09B Reported
Concentrate sales to bottling partners in Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East and AfricaCosta, excluding the ready-to-drink businessinnocentdogadanFinished product operations in certain territories
Sequential growth +0.9%/qtr decaying toward +0.6% 0.90% is the 2024 Q2 to 2026 Q2 compound quarterly rate, like calendar quarter to like calendar quarter.
Europe, Middle East & Africa

Latest: $3.31B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $2.44B
2024Q2 $2.87B
2024Q3 $2.56B
2024Q4 $2.42B
2025Q1 $2.48B
2025Q2 $3.01B
2025Q3 $2.82B
2025Q4 $2.53B
2026Q1 $2.81B
2026Q2 $3.09B
2026Q3E $2.83B
2026Q4E $2.50B
2027Q1E $2.71B
2027Q2E $3.15B
2027Q3E $2.89B
2027Q4E $2.54B
2028Q1E $2.75B
2028Q2E $3.19B
2028Q3E $2.93B
2028Q4E $2.57B
2029Q1E $2.79B
2029Q2E $3.24B
2029Q3E $2.96B
2029Q4E $2.60B
2030Q1E $2.82B
2030Q2E $3.27B
2030Q3E $3.00B
2030Q4E $2.63B
2031Q1E $2.85B
2031Q2E $3.31B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q4 points are derived, not reported: full-year recast third-party revenue from the FY2025 10-K segment note less the nine-month figure in the matching Q3 10-Q ($10,278M less $7,863M, and $10,833M less $8,307M). They are flagged estimated for that reason.
  • Seasonality is day-normalised before it is fitted, because Coca-Cola's quarters are not equal in length. The amplitude is 0.223 against a worst-case window-to-window spread of 0.043, and both 2024 and 2025 agree on a Q2 peak and a Q4 trough.
  • Reported revenue here is materially more volatile than organic revenue: Turkish lira and Egyptian pound exposure, and a continuing structural headwind from the 2025 sale of the Nigeria finished-product operations.
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