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KO · Forward model · Europe, Middle East & Africa · Braun case

What has to happen in Europe, Middle East & Africa

Model as of

This page changes Europe, Middle East & Africa inside the complete KO model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

KO forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $86.83 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.62B 24% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $20.98B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Henrique Braun's first full quarter as chief executive delivered 5% global unit case volume growth led by India, China, the United States and Brazil, with the FIFA World Cup activation contributing to 5% Trademark Coca-Cola volume growth and 8% Powerade volume growth. The case is that the marketing machine converts events into cases, and that concentrate-led growth - four points of concentrate against two of price and mix - is more durable than the pricing-led growth of the prior two years. The lift is put where the volume actually is, on Asia Pacific and Latin America, rather than spread evenly. What this case does not reach: the World Cup does not repeat in the second half, the company itself says concentrate shipments will lag volume by a further point in the third quarter, and none of it touches the day-count or African bottling arithmetic that shapes the fourth.

Europe, Middle East & Africa

Basis quarter$3.09B
Final quarter$3.62B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix24%

Concentrate and finished-product sales across Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East and Africa, plus Costa (excluding ready-to-drink), innocent and dogadan, which moved here when Global Ventures was sunset on 1 January 2025. $3,087M of third-party revenue in the basis quarter, 23.1% of the group. In 2026 Q2 reported revenue grew 2% on concentrate sales +1, price/mix +1, currency +2 and acquisitions and divestitures -3.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.82B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.53B Estimated
2026 Q1 $2.81B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.09B Reported
Concentrate sales to bottling partners in Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East and AfricaCosta, excluding the ready-to-drink businessinnocentdogadanFinished product operations in certain territories
Sequential growth +0.9%/qtr decaying toward +0.6% 0.90% is the 2024 Q2 to 2026 Q2 compound quarterly rate, like calendar quarter to like calendar quarter.
Europe, Middle East & Africa

Latest: $3.62B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $2.44B
2024Q2 $2.87B
2024Q3 $2.56B
2024Q4 $2.42B
2025Q1 $2.48B
2025Q2 $3.01B
2025Q3 $2.82B
2025Q4 $2.53B
2026Q1 $2.81B
2026Q2 $3.09B
2026Q3E $2.85B
2026Q4E $2.52B
2027Q1E $2.75B
2027Q2E $3.20B
2027Q3E $2.95B
2027Q4E $2.61B
2028Q1E $2.84B
2028Q2E $3.31B
2028Q3E $3.05B
2028Q4E $2.69B
2029Q1E $2.93B
2029Q2E $3.41B
2029Q3E $3.14B
2029Q4E $2.77B
2030Q1E $3.02B
2030Q2E $3.52B
2030Q3E $3.23B
2030Q4E $2.86B
2031Q1E $3.11B
2031Q2E $3.62B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q4 points are derived, not reported: full-year recast third-party revenue from the FY2025 10-K segment note less the nine-month figure in the matching Q3 10-Q ($10,278M less $7,863M, and $10,833M less $8,307M). They are flagged estimated for that reason.
  • Seasonality is day-normalised before it is fitted, because Coca-Cola's quarters are not equal in length. The amplitude is 0.223 against a worst-case window-to-window spread of 0.043, and both 2024 and 2025 agree on a Q2 peak and a Q4 trough.
  • Reported revenue here is materially more volatile than organic revenue: Turkish lira and Egyptian pound exposure, and a continuing structural headwind from the 2025 sale of the Nigeria finished-product operations.
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