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KO · Forward model · Asia Pacific · Bear case

What has to happen in Asia Pacific

Model as of

This page changes Asia Pacific inside the complete KO model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

KO forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $59.38 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.62B 12% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $10.00B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The second half gives back what the calendar gave. Coca-Cola's own guidance implies a comparable revenue bridge of roughly +5 organic, +1 currency and -2 to -3 from acquisitions and divestitures; consensus turns that into FY2026 revenue of $49.72bn, which against first-half actuals of $25,852M leaves $23,868M for the second half - a 1.7% decline after a first half that grew 9.2%. Two disclosed mechanisms do it: six fewer days in 2026 Q4 than in 2025 Q4, and the African bottling deconsolidation. FY2027 consensus revenue of $49.82bn is 0.2% above FY2026, so the sell side does not expect the lost revenue back. This case takes the top of the derived $1.0-1.4bn African bottling range, trims the compounding growth of every line and marks the exit multiple down to 17x.

Asia Pacific

Basis quarter$1.49B
Final quarter$1.62B
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix12%

India, China, Japan, ASEAN and the rest of Asia Pacific: $1,487M of third-party revenue plus $94M of intersegment revenue that is deliberately excluded here. Volume-led and price-poor. In 2026 Q2 concentrate sales grew 11% against price/mix of -9%, for reported revenue growth of 1% on unit case volume growth of 8%. India and China led the company's 5% global volume growth.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.44B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.10B Estimated
2026 Q1 $1.43B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.49B Reported
Concentrate sales to bottling partners in India, China, Japan and ASEANFinished product operations in certain territories
Sequential growth +0.8%/qtr decaying toward +0.8% 0.79% is the 2024 Q2 to 2026 Q2 compound quarterly rate on the deseasonalised level.
Asia Pacific

Latest: $1.62B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $1.26B
2024Q2 $1.40B
2024Q3 $1.28B
2024Q4 $1.18B
2025Q1 $1.32B
2025Q2 $1.46B
2025Q3 $1.44B
2025Q4 $1.10B
2026Q1 $1.43B
2026Q2 $1.49B
2026Q3E $1.42B
2026Q4E $1.14B
2027Q1E $1.41B
2027Q2E $1.51B
2027Q3E $1.45B
2027Q4E $1.16B
2028Q1E $1.44B
2028Q2E $1.54B
2028Q3E $1.47B
2028Q4E $1.18B
2029Q1E $1.46B
2029Q2E $1.57B
2029Q3E $1.50B
2029Q4E $1.20B
2030Q1E $1.49B
2030Q2E $1.60B
2030Q3E $1.53B
2030Q4E $1.23B
2031Q1E $1.52B
2031Q2E $1.62B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The Q4 factor is the least stable number in this model. The two annual windows put it at 0.886 and 0.783, a spread of 0.103 against an amplitude of 0.261. The shipped vector uses the 0.835 average: the direction of the Q4 trough is reliable, its depth is not, and the vertical is 11% of group revenue so the bounded error is about 0.6% of the group.
  • Volume is arriving and revenue per case is not. Price/mix has been negative and the terminal growth rate of 0.8% a quarter assumes that continues to offset most of the volume leverage rather than assuming it resolves.
  • Segment capital expenditure was zero in the basis quarter, so the capex intensity is an honest zero rather than an omission.
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