KO · Forward model · Asia Pacific
What has to happen in Asia Pacific
Model as of
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Asia Pacific
Basis quarter$1.49B
Final quarter$1.74B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix12%
India, China, Japan, ASEAN and the rest of Asia Pacific: $1,487M of third-party revenue plus $94M of intersegment revenue that is deliberately excluded here. Volume-led and price-poor. In 2026 Q2 concentrate sales grew 11% against price/mix of -9%, for reported revenue growth of 1% on unit case volume growth of 8%. India and China led the company's 5% global volume growth.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$1.44B
Reported
2025 Q4
$1.10B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$1.43B
Reported
2026 Q2
$1.49B
Reported
Concentrate sales to bottling partners in India, China, Japan and ASEANFinished product operations in certain territories
Sequential growth
+0.8%/qtr
decaying toward +0.8%
0.79% is the 2024 Q2 to 2026 Q2 compound quarterly rate on the deseasonalised level.
Asia Pacific
Latest: $1.74B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $1.26B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.40B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.28B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.18B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.32B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.46B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.44B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.10B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.43B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.49B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.43B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.15B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.43B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.53B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.47B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.19B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.47B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.58B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.52B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.23B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.52B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.64B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.57B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.27B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.57B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.69B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.62B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.31B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.62B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.74B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The Q4 factor is the least stable number in this model. The two annual windows put it at 0.886 and 0.783, a spread of 0.103 against an amplitude of 0.261. The shipped vector uses the 0.835 average: the direction of the Q4 trough is reliable, its depth is not, and the vertical is 11% of group revenue so the bounded error is about 0.6% of the group.
- Volume is arriving and revenue per case is not. Price/mix has been negative and the terminal growth rate of 0.8% a quarter assumes that continues to offset most of the volume leverage rather than assuming it resolves.
- Segment capital expenditure was zero in the basis quarter, so the capex intensity is an honest zero rather than an omission.