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JPM · Forward model · Commercial & Investment Bank · NII Guide case

What has to happen in Commercial & Investment Bank

Model as of

This page changes Commercial & Investment Bank inside the complete JPM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JPM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $621.17 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $49.74B 44% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $268.82B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Jeremy Barnum on the 14 July 2026 call: NII excluding Markets about $96.5B and total NII approximately $105.5B for 2026, Markets NII about $9B, adjusted expense about $107.5B. H1 reported NII is $50.9B, so H2 has to print about $54.6B. This case pays for that on the same four lines. It does not assume Equities +86% repeats, and it does not treat the 15% retail deposit share as contracted.

Commercial & Investment Bank

Basis quarter$24.85B
Final quarter$49.74B
Implied CAGR+15%
Final revenue mix44%

Wholesale banking, payments, markets and securities services. $24.9B in the basis quarter, +27% year over year, 22% ROE. Equity Markets $6.0B was +86%. Barnum said that particular set of things is hard to imagine repeating, so the opening rate is 2%, not the trailing 6%.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $19.88B Reported
2025 Q4 $19.38B Reported
2026 Q1 $23.38B Reported
2026 Q2 $24.85B Reported
Investment BankingPaymentsLendingFixed Income MarketsEquity MarketsSecurities Services
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 2% QoQ. Does not repeat Q2 Equities +86%. Barnum: hard to imagine that set of things repeating.
Commercial & Investment Bank

Latest: $49.74B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $19.67B
2025Q2 $19.54B
2025Q3 $19.88B
2025Q4 $19.38B
2026Q1 $23.38B
2026Q2 $24.85B
2026Q3E $25.73B
2026Q4E $26.64B
2027Q1E $27.58B
2027Q2E $28.55B
2027Q3E $29.56B
2027Q4E $30.60B
2028Q1E $31.68B
2028Q2E $32.80B
2028Q3E $33.96B
2028Q4E $35.16B
2029Q1E $36.40B
2029Q2E $37.69B
2029Q3E $39.02B
2029Q4E $40.39B
2030Q1E $41.82B
2030Q2E $43.30B
2030Q3E $44.82B
2030Q4E $46.41B
2031Q1E $48.04B
2031Q2E $49.74B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • CIB is one reportable segment. Banking & Payments $11,162M versus Markets & Securities Services $13,691M is a revenue split, not two P&Ls. Inventing a Markets vertical would look more rigorous and be less true.
  • Opening 2% is a fade from a record quarter, not the Q3 NII guide. IB fees $3.3B were +30% and the highest since 2021; Barnum said some of that was pull-forward and the pipeline is still robust.
  • Pretax 52.7% is PPP $13,463M minus provision $356M. It includes $263M of the equity-investment gains. Terminal 45% walks off a Markets-heavy mix.
  • Standardized RWA rose about $103B in the quarter. That is CET1, not capex. The 2% capex intensity does not pretend otherwise.
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