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JPM · Forward model · Corporate · NII Guide case

What has to happen in Corporate

Model as of

This page changes Corporate inside the complete JPM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JPM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $621.17 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.86B 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $12.85B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Jeremy Barnum on the 14 July 2026 call: NII excluding Markets about $96.5B and total NII approximately $105.5B for 2026, Markets NII about $9B, adjusted expense about $107.5B. H1 reported NII is $50.9B, so H2 has to print about $54.6B. This case pays for that on the same four lines. It does not assume Equities +86% repeats, and it does not treat the 15% retail deposit share as contracted.

Corporate

Basis quarter$6.05B
Final quarter$1.86B
Implied CAGR−21%
Final revenue mix2%

Treasury NII on excess liquidity, securities results and one-time items. $6.0B in the basis quarter versus $1.2B in Q1. The jump is a $4.6B Visa Class C gain plus $763M of equity marks. Opening growth of −75% puts Q3 back near $1.5B, the clean four-quarter average, rather than compounding a one-timer.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.70B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.48B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.22B Reported
2026 Q2 $6.05B Reported
Treasury net interest incomeInvestment securitiesVisa and equity marks
Sequential growth −75.0%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% −75% QoQ. Q2 includes $4.6B Visa plus $763M equity gains. Lands Q3 near the $1.5B clean run-rate.
Corporate

Latest: $1.86B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $2.30B
2025Q2 $1.54B
2025Q3 $1.70B
2025Q4 $1.48B
2026Q1 $1.22B
2026Q2 $6.05B
2026Q3E $1.53B
2026Q4E $1.43B
2027Q1E $1.44B
2027Q2E $1.46B
2027Q3E $1.49B
2027Q4E $1.51B
2028Q1E $1.53B
2028Q2E $1.55B
2028Q3E $1.58B
2028Q4E $1.60B
2029Q1E $1.63B
2029Q2E $1.65B
2029Q3E $1.68B
2029Q4E $1.70B
2030Q1E $1.73B
2030Q2E $1.75B
2030Q3E $1.78B
2030Q4E $1.80B
2031Q1E $1.83B
2031Q2E $1.86B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The $6,046M actual is copied as disclosed so managed net revenue still reconciles at $58,022M. The −75% rate is the Visa step-down. Do not strip the gain from history.
  • Release: Corporate net revenue $6.0B, up $4.5B, or down $805M excluding significant items. That down $805M is year over year, on lower NII from lower rates.
  • Margin 53% is Q1 PPP $647M on $1,215M, not Q2's 90% which is the gain. Using 90% would capitalise the Visa print as a treasury spread.
  • Q2 2025 Corporate net income included a $774M income-tax benefit that does not repeat. Prior-year comparisons on this line are not clean.
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