JPM · Forward model · NII Guide case
The NII Guide case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
JPMorgan reports THREE operating segments plus Corporate — Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial & Investment Bank, Asset & Wealth Management, Corporate — all on a managed (FTE) net-revenue basis. This model copies those FOUR lines so the $4.6B Visa gain sits in Corporate instead of being spread. Every historical point is copied from the 8-K or the Exhibit 99.2 supplement. Markets versus Banking inside CIB is NOT split: only revenue sub-totals are published. AUM is disclosed but AWM is not a subscription, because management fees are 62% of the line. Fiscal quarters are calendar; 2026 Q2 ended 30 June 2026. Segment 'EBITDA' here is pretax income (pre-provision profit minus provision). Corporate's 53% margin is the Q1 run-rate, not the 90% Visa-quarter print. netCash is zero: cash $25B plus deposits with banks $285B minus long-term debt $461B is not surplus capital at a deposit-funded bank. Capex 2% is a premises proxy; most technology spend is already in the expense line, and CET1 against RWA is not capex. Local series.json 'revenue' of $82,460M is gross interest plus noninterest revenue and is not used.
Jeremy Barnum on the 14 July 2026 call: NII excluding Markets about $96.5B and total NII approximately $105.5B for 2026, Markets NII about $9B, adjusted expense about $107.5B. H1 reported NII is $50.9B, so H2 has to print about $54.6B. This case pays for that on the same four lines. It does not assume Equities +86% repeats, and it does not treat the 15% retail deposit share as contracted.
Latest: $114.29B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $46.01B |
| 2025Q2 | $45.68B |
| 2025Q3 | $47.12B |
| 2025Q4 | $46.77B |
| 2026Q1 | $50.54B |
| 2026Q2 | $58.02B |
| 2026Q3E | $55.75B |
| 2026Q4E | $57.96B |
| 2027Q1E | $60.32B |
| 2027Q2E | $62.76B |
| 2027Q3E | $65.27B |
| 2027Q4E | $67.85B |
| 2028Q1E | $70.50B |
| 2028Q2E | $73.24B |
| 2028Q3E | $76.06B |
| 2028Q4E | $78.98B |
| 2029Q1E | $81.99B |
| 2029Q2E | $85.10B |
| 2029Q3E | $88.32B |
| 2029Q4E | $91.65B |
| 2030Q1E | $95.10B |
| 2030Q2E | $98.67B |
| 2030Q3E | $102.37B |
| 2030Q4E | $106.21B |
| 2031Q1E | $110.18B |
| 2031Q2E | $114.29B |
What drives each segment
Consumer & Community Banking
Growth pathDeposits, mass-affluent wealth, home lending, card and auto. $20.3B in the basis quarter, +8% year over year, 34% ROE. What paces it is deposit balances and card revolving balances, neither of which is a complete unit series, so the projection is sequential growth on the reported line.
Latest: $47.66B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $18.31B |
| 2025Q2 | $18.85B |
| 2025Q3 | $19.47B |
| 2025Q4 | $19.40B |
| 2026Q1 | $19.57B |
| 2026Q2 | $20.27B |
| 2026Q3E | $21.30B |
| 2026Q4E | $22.34B |
| 2027Q1E | $23.41B |
| 2027Q2E | $24.50B |
| 2027Q3E | $25.62B |
| 2027Q4E | $26.77B |
| 2028Q1E | $27.96B |
| 2028Q2E | $29.18B |
| 2028Q3E | $30.44B |
| 2028Q4E | $31.74B |
| 2029Q1E | $33.09B |
| 2029Q2E | $34.48B |
| 2029Q3E | $35.92B |
| 2029Q4E | $37.42B |
| 2030Q1E | $38.97B |
| 2030Q2E | $40.58B |
| 2030Q3E | $42.25B |
| 2030Q4E | $43.98B |
| 2031Q1E | $45.78B |
| 2031Q2E | $47.66B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A growth driver rather than deposits-as-capacity, and that is the honest answer. Average deposits and card loans are discussed, not published as a complete volume series the engine can charge a yield on.
- Opening 3% is the trailing sequential, not the 8% year-over-year. Combined with CIB +2%, AWM +4% and Corporate −75% it prints about $54.9B in Q3, a clean-run-rate quarter after the Visa print.
- Pretax margin 34.6% is PPP $9,164M minus provision $2,156M, over $20,272M. Card NCO 3.34%; Barnum guided about 3.2% for the year. Terminal 32% is a little credit normalisation, not a consumer recession.
- Banking & WM $11,229M, Home Lending $1,285M, Card & Auto $7,758M are revenue sub-lines. Operating profit is not split between them.
Commercial & Investment Bank
Growth pathWholesale banking, payments, markets and securities services. $24.9B in the basis quarter, +27% year over year, 22% ROE. Equity Markets $6.0B was +86%. Barnum said that particular set of things is hard to imagine repeating, so the opening rate is 2%, not the trailing 6%.
Latest: $49.74B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $19.67B |
| 2025Q2 | $19.54B |
| 2025Q3 | $19.88B |
| 2025Q4 | $19.38B |
| 2026Q1 | $23.38B |
| 2026Q2 | $24.85B |
| 2026Q3E | $25.73B |
| 2026Q4E | $26.64B |
| 2027Q1E | $27.58B |
| 2027Q2E | $28.55B |
| 2027Q3E | $29.56B |
| 2027Q4E | $30.60B |
| 2028Q1E | $31.68B |
| 2028Q2E | $32.80B |
| 2028Q3E | $33.96B |
| 2028Q4E | $35.16B |
| 2029Q1E | $36.40B |
| 2029Q2E | $37.69B |
| 2029Q3E | $39.02B |
| 2029Q4E | $40.39B |
| 2030Q1E | $41.82B |
| 2030Q2E | $43.30B |
| 2030Q3E | $44.82B |
| 2030Q4E | $46.41B |
| 2031Q1E | $48.04B |
| 2031Q2E | $49.74B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- CIB is one reportable segment. Banking & Payments $11,162M versus Markets & Securities Services $13,691M is a revenue split, not two P&Ls. Inventing a Markets vertical would look more rigorous and be less true.
- Opening 2% is a fade from a record quarter, not the Q3 NII guide. IB fees $3.3B were +30% and the highest since 2021; Barnum said some of that was pull-forward and the pipeline is still robust.
- Pretax 52.7% is PPP $13,463M minus provision $356M. It includes $263M of the equity-investment gains. Terminal 45% walks off a Markets-heavy mix.
- Standardized RWA rose about $103B in the quarter. That is CET1, not capex. The 2% capex intensity does not pretend otherwise.
Asset & Wealth Management
Growth pathAsset management plus the global private bank. $6.9B in the basis quarter, +19% year over year, 48% ROE, 38% pretax. AUM $5.1T with $50B of long-term net inflows. Management fees are 62% of revenue, so AUM is the volume tell and not a subscription driver.
Latest: $15.04B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $5.73B |
| 2025Q2 | $5.76B |
| 2025Q3 | $6.07B |
| 2025Q4 | $6.52B |
| 2026Q1 | $6.37B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.85B |
| 2026Q3E | $7.20B |
| 2026Q4E | $7.54B |
| 2027Q1E | $7.89B |
| 2027Q2E | $8.24B |
| 2027Q3E | $8.60B |
| 2027Q4E | $8.96B |
| 2028Q1E | $9.33B |
| 2028Q2E | $9.70B |
| 2028Q3E | $10.08B |
| 2028Q4E | $10.47B |
| 2029Q1E | $10.87B |
| 2029Q2E | $11.28B |
| 2029Q3E | $11.71B |
| 2029Q4E | $12.14B |
| 2030Q1E | $12.59B |
| 2030Q2E | $13.05B |
| 2030Q3E | $13.52B |
| 2030Q4E | $14.01B |
| 2031Q1E | $14.52B |
| 2031Q2E | $15.04B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A growth driver rather than AUM × fee. Asset management fees $4,227M of $6,851M; the rest is private-bank NII and brokerage. Charging a fee on $5.14T would ignore that mix.
- AUM $5,140B, client assets $7,663B, long-term net inflows $50B. The Q1 dip to $6,374M from Q4 $6,516M is seasonal fees, not a franchise break.
- Pretax 38.4% matches the disclosed 38% AWM pretax-margin ratio. Terminal 38% holds that rather than expanding it.
- Asset Management $3,320M and Global Private Bank $3,531M are revenue sub-lines. Pretax is published only for AWM as a whole, plus the two pretax-margin ratios.
Corporate
Growth pathTreasury NII on excess liquidity, securities results and one-time items. $6.0B in the basis quarter versus $1.2B in Q1. The jump is a $4.6B Visa Class C gain plus $763M of equity marks. Opening growth of −75% puts Q3 back near $1.5B, the clean four-quarter average, rather than compounding a one-timer.
Latest: $1.86B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $2.30B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.54B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.70B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.48B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.22B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.05B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.53B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.43B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.44B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.46B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.49B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.51B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.53B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.55B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.58B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.60B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.63B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.65B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.68B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.70B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.73B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.75B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.78B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.80B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.83B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.86B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The $6,046M actual is copied as disclosed so managed net revenue still reconciles at $58,022M. The −75% rate is the Visa step-down. Do not strip the gain from history.
- Release: Corporate net revenue $6.0B, up $4.5B, or down $805M excluding significant items. That down $805M is year over year, on lower NII from lower rates.
- Margin 53% is Q1 PPP $647M on $1,215M, not Q2's 90% which is the gain. Using 90% would capitalise the Visa print as a treasury spread.
- Q2 2025 Corporate net income included a $774M income-tax benefit that does not repeat. Prior-year comparisons on this line are not clean.
Where each case comes from
NII Guide case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the NII Guide column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
JPMorgan Chase Q2 2026 earnings call, 14 July 2026
- Jul 14, 2026 In terms of the full year 2026 outlook, we now expect NII ex. Markets to be about $96.5 billion and total NII to be approximately $105.5 billion as a function of Markets NII increasing to about $9 billion.
- Jul 14, 2026 And the new adjusted expense outlook is about $107.5 billion, with the increase primarily due to higher volume- and revenue-related expenses, driven by the activity levels and associated revenue outperformance.
- Jul 14, 2026 The Firm reported very strong results in the quarter, generating net income of $16.9 billion and an ROTCE of 23%, excluding gains related to Visa and certain equity investments.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $407.02B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $433.05B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $177.03B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 4.5x |
| Terminal value | $1.95T |
| Discounted at 9.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $1.27T |
| Enterprise value | $1.67T |
| Net cash | $0 |
| Equity value | $1.67T |
| Shares | 2.69B |
| Fair value per share | $621.17 |
| Against the current price of $354.22 | +75% |
4x terminal-year managed net revenue for a bank whose Equities print has stopped compounding at 86% a year. Today the equity is ~$960B at $356.39 on 2.694B diluted shares, about 4.7x trailing managed net revenue of ~$202B and ~14.5x annualised clean $6.14. Tangible book is $113.35 a share, so the tape is ~3.2x P/TBV. Large-cap banks live on that language; this engine exits on revenue because it has no book-value path. Discount rate is 10%, a large-cap cost of equity, with CET1 already at 14.1% and a 73% LTM payout. Move the exit multiple before anything else: at 2.5x and at 5.5x the answer moves by more than AWM and Corporate combined. netCash is zero on purpose — subtracting $151B of 'net debt' would ignore the deposit franchise those assets fund.
Read the other way round: at $354.22 the market is paying 1.9x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Consumer & Community Banking | Commercial & Investment Bank | Asset & Wealth Management | Corporate | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $21.30B | $25.73B | $7.20B | $1.53B | $55.75B | +18% | $25.10B | $1.12B | $18.94B | +52 | $18.54B |
| 2026 Q4E | $22.34B | $26.64B | $7.54B | $1.43B | $57.96B | +24% | $25.77B | $1.16B | $19.44B | +57 | $18.62B |
| 2027 Q1E | $23.41B | $27.58B | $7.89B | $1.44B | $60.32B | +19% | $26.53B | $1.21B | $20.01B | +53 | $18.76B |
| 2027 Q2E | $24.50B | $28.55B | $8.24B | $1.46B | $62.76B | +8% | $27.35B | $1.26B | $20.61B | +41 | $18.91B |
| 2027 Q3E | $25.62B | $29.56B | $8.60B | $1.49B | $65.27B | +17% | $28.20B | $1.31B | $21.25B | +50 | $19.08B |
| 2027 Q4E | $26.77B | $30.60B | $8.96B | $1.51B | $67.85B | +17% | $29.09B | $1.36B | $21.91B | +49 | $19.25B |
| 2028 Q1E | $27.96B | $31.68B | $9.33B | $1.53B | $70.50B | +17% | $30.03B | $1.41B | $22.61B | +49 | $19.44B |
| 2028 Q2E | $29.18B | $32.80B | $9.70B | $1.55B | $73.24B | +17% | $31.01B | $1.46B | $23.34B | +49 | $19.65B |
| 2028 Q3E | $30.44B | $33.96B | $10.08B | $1.58B | $76.06B | +17% | $32.03B | $1.52B | $24.11B | +48 | $19.86B |
| 2028 Q4E | $31.74B | $35.16B | $10.47B | $1.60B | $78.98B | +16% | $33.10B | $1.58B | $24.90B | +48 | $20.08B |
| 2029 Q1E | $33.09B | $36.40B | $10.87B | $1.63B | $81.99B | +16% | $34.22B | $1.64B | $25.74B | +48 | $20.31B |
| 2029 Q2E | $34.48B | $37.69B | $11.28B | $1.65B | $85.10B | +16% | $35.38B | $1.70B | $26.61B | +47 | $20.55B |
| 2029 Q3E | $35.92B | $39.02B | $11.71B | $1.68B | $88.32B | +16% | $36.60B | $1.77B | $27.52B | +47 | $20.80B |
| 2029 Q4E | $37.42B | $40.39B | $12.14B | $1.70B | $91.65B | +16% | $37.86B | $1.83B | $28.46B | +47 | $21.05B |
| 2030 Q1E | $38.97B | $41.82B | $12.59B | $1.73B | $95.10B | +16% | $39.18B | $1.90B | $29.45B | +47 | $21.32B |
| 2030 Q2E | $40.58B | $43.30B | $13.05B | $1.75B | $98.67B | +16% | $40.55B | $1.97B | $30.47B | +47 | $21.59B |
| 2030 Q3E | $42.25B | $44.82B | $13.52B | $1.78B | $102.37B | +16% | $41.97B | $2.05B | $31.54B | +47 | $21.87B |
| 2030 Q4E | $43.98B | $46.41B | $14.01B | $1.80B | $106.21B | +16% | $43.46B | $2.12B | $32.65B | +47 | $22.16B |
| 2031 Q1E | $45.78B | $48.04B | $14.52B | $1.83B | $110.18B | +16% | $45.00B | $2.20B | $33.81B | +47 | $22.45B |
| 2031 Q2E | $47.66B | $49.74B | $15.04B | $1.86B | $114.29B | +16% | $46.60B | $2.29B | $35.01B | +46 | $22.75B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | all | $394.94 | Initial model. Four verticals on the disclosed CCB / CIB / AWM / Corporate managed split, basis the June quarter at $58,022M, Corporate opening rate a Visa step-down, NII guide the named case. |