JPM · Forward model · Corporate
What has to happen in Corporate
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Corporate
Basis quarter$6.05B
Final quarter$1.39B
Implied CAGR−26%
Final revenue mix2%
Treasury NII on excess liquidity, securities results and one-time items. $6.0B in the basis quarter versus $1.2B in Q1. The jump is a $4.6B Visa Class C gain plus $763M of equity marks. Opening growth of −75% puts Q3 back near $1.5B, the clean four-quarter average, rather than compounding a one-timer.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$1.70B
Reported
2025 Q4
$1.48B
Reported
2026 Q1
$1.22B
Reported
2026 Q2
$6.05B
Reported
Treasury net interest incomeInvestment securitiesVisa and equity marks
Sequential growth
−75.0%/qtr
decaying toward 0.0%
−75% QoQ. Q2 includes $4.6B Visa plus $763M equity gains. Lands Q3 near the $1.5B clean run-rate.
Corporate
Latest: $1.39B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $2.30B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.54B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.70B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.48B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.22B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.05B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.51B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.40B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.39B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.39B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.39B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.39B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.39B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.39B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.39B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.39B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.39B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.39B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.39B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.39B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.39B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.39B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.39B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.39B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.39B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.39B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The $6,046M actual is copied as disclosed so managed net revenue still reconciles at $58,022M. The −75% rate is the Visa step-down. Do not strip the gain from history.
- Release: Corporate net revenue $6.0B, up $4.5B, or down $805M excluding significant items. That down $805M is year over year, on lower NII from lower rates.
- Margin 53% is Q1 PPP $647M on $1,215M, not Q2's 90% which is the gain. Using 90% would capitalise the Visa print as a treasury spread.
- Q2 2025 Corporate net income included a $774M income-tax benefit that does not repeat. Prior-year comparisons on this line are not clean.