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JPM · Forward model · Commercial & Investment Bank · Bull case

What has to happen in Commercial & Investment Bank

Model as of

This page changes Commercial & Investment Bank inside the complete JPM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JPM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $715.98 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $56.34B 48% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $302.64B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

IB pipeline converts, wholesale deposits keep outrunning the plan, AUM compounds, and CCB keeps adding checking accounts. What this case does NOT reach is Barnum's $105.5B NII as a numbered 2026 print — that is the named case — and it does not treat 15% retail deposit share as a 2026 event.

Commercial & Investment Bank

Basis quarter$24.85B
Final quarter$56.34B
Implied CAGR+18%
Final revenue mix48%

Wholesale banking, payments, markets and securities services. $24.9B in the basis quarter, +27% year over year, 22% ROE. Equity Markets $6.0B was +86%. Barnum said that particular set of things is hard to imagine repeating, so the opening rate is 2%, not the trailing 6%.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $19.88B Reported
2025 Q4 $19.38B Reported
2026 Q1 $23.38B Reported
2026 Q2 $24.85B Reported
Investment BankingPaymentsLendingFixed Income MarketsEquity MarketsSecurities Services
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 2% QoQ. Does not repeat Q2 Equities +86%. Barnum: hard to imagine that set of things repeating.
Commercial & Investment Bank

Latest: $56.34B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $19.67B
2025Q2 $19.54B
2025Q3 $19.88B
2025Q4 $19.38B
2026Q1 $23.38B
2026Q2 $24.85B
2026Q3E $25.98B
2026Q4E $27.14B
2027Q1E $28.33B
2027Q2E $29.56B
2027Q3E $30.82B
2027Q4E $32.12B
2028Q1E $33.47B
2028Q2E $34.86B
2028Q3E $36.30B
2028Q4E $37.80B
2029Q1E $39.35B
2029Q2E $40.97B
2029Q3E $42.64B
2029Q4E $44.38B
2030Q1E $46.18B
2030Q2E $48.06B
2030Q3E $50.01B
2030Q4E $52.04B
2031Q1E $54.15B
2031Q2E $56.34B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • CIB is one reportable segment. Banking & Payments $11,162M versus Markets & Securities Services $13,691M is a revenue split, not two P&Ls. Inventing a Markets vertical would look more rigorous and be less true.
  • Opening 2% is a fade from a record quarter, not the Q3 NII guide. IB fees $3.3B were +30% and the highest since 2021; Barnum said some of that was pull-forward and the pipeline is still robust.
  • Pretax 52.7% is PPP $13,463M minus provision $356M. It includes $263M of the equity-investment gains. Terminal 45% walks off a Markets-heavy mix.
  • Standardized RWA rose about $103B in the quarter. That is CET1, not capex. The 2% capex intensity does not pretend otherwise.
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