JNJ · Forward model · Immunology
What has to happen in Immunology
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Immunology
Basis quarter$3.84B
Final quarter$4.35B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix13%
TREMFYA's ramp is being run down by the STELARA biosimilar cliff; the line is the drag the rest of the model has to out-run.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$4.17B
Reported
2025 Q4
$3.86B
Reported
2026 Q1
$3.38B
Reported
2026 Q2
$3.84B
Reported
TREMFYASTELARA (eroding)SIMPONI/SIMPONI ARIAREMICADE (eroding)Other immunology
Sequential growth
−0.3%/qtr
decaying toward +1.2%
-0.3% a quarter deseasonalised: the cliff is fading, the line was -3.7% year over year against -7.9% TTM.
Immunology
Latest: $4.35B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $4.11B |
| 2023Q2 | $4.50B |
| 2023Q3 | $4.85B |
| 2023Q4 | $4.59B |
| 2024Q1 | $4.25B |
| 2024Q2 | $4.72B |
| 2024Q3 | $4.62B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.24B |
| 2025Q1 | $3.71B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.99B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.17B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.86B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.38B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.84B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.98B |
| 2026Q4E | $3.75B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.43B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.84B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.99B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.78B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.47B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.91B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.08B |
| 2028Q4E | $3.88B |
| 2029Q1E | $3.57B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.02B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.21B |
| 2029Q4E | $4.01B |
| 2030Q1E | $3.70B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.18B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.38B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.17B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.85B |
| 2031Q2E | $4.35B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Management framed the drag two ways on the 15 July 2026 call, a secondary transcript: about 460bp on total-company operational growth, and STELARA at only 4% of Innovative Medicine sales in the quarter. The release itself puts the STELARA drag at about 760bp of segment growth.
- Seasonality is applied here on the research recommendation: amplitude 14.6% against a 4.6% worst-quarter spread, repeated in all three windows. Part of the 0.915 Q1 factor is the January gross-to-net and payer reset, and part is the STELARA step-down landing in the same quarter.
- The quarterly path is a decline plus a seasonal shape plus a cliff. Separating them is the single largest modelling judgement in this ticker, and the model resolves it by decaying the sequential rate from -0.3% up toward +1.2%.