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GOOGL · Forward model · Other Bets · Bear case

What has to happen in Other Bets

Model as of

This page changes Other Bets inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $113.15 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $342M 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$21.06B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Search AI substitutes for queries, Cloud utilisation misses the $514B backlog, and capex stays elevated into 2028. What this case does NOT assume is a Chrome divestiture or a collapse of YouTube. It says 2026 was the peak growth year and the build does not earn its cost of capital.

Other Bets

Basis quarter$382M
Final quarter$342M
Implied CAGR−2%
Final revenue mix0%

Waymo autonomous rides and other bets. $382M in the basis quarter, +2%, operating loss $1,799M. Waymo surpassed 500,000 fully autonomous rides a week in Q1 2026. That is not a disclosed dollar path, so sequential growth on the tiny filed total.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $344M Reported
2025 Q4 $370M Reported
2026 Q1 $411M Reported
2026 Q2 $382M Reported
Waymo autonomous transportationOther Other-Bets internet and healthcare remnants
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% YoY +2%. Do not turn 500k weekly rides into a dollar ramp Alphabet did not file.
Other Bets

Latest: $342M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $450M
2025Q2 $373M
2025Q3 $344M
2025Q4 $370M
2026Q1 $411M
2026Q2 $382M
2026Q3E $380M
2026Q4E $378M
2027Q1E $376M
2027Q2E $374M
2027Q3E $372M
2027Q4E $370M
2028Q1E $368M
2028Q2E $366M
2028Q3E $364M
2028Q4E $362M
2029Q1E $360M
2029Q2E $358M
2029Q3E $356M
2029Q4E $354M
2030Q1E $352M
2030Q2E $350M
2030Q3E $348M
2030Q4E $346M
2031Q1E $344M
2031Q2E $342M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Do not add a delayed Waymo vertical. Rides per week are disclosed; dollars per ride are not. Other Bets remains $382M.
  • Q4 2025 operating loss $3,617M included a $2.1B Waymo employee compensation charge. Q2 $1,799M is the cleaner run-rate hole.
  • This line cannot move group fair value much. It is carried because Alphabet reports it and because folding it into Cloud would flatter Cloud.
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