CVX · Forward model · U.S. Upstream · Bear case
What has to happen in U.S. Upstream
Model as of
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U.S. Upstream
Basis quarter$5.61B
Final quarter$5.06B
Implied CAGR−2%
Final revenue mix12%
Permian, Gulf of America, DJ and the legacy Hess Bakken barrels. Volume is disclosed every quarter and is the constraint management guides to 2030; price is Brent-linked and outside the company's control. The reported revenue line is small against the barrels because roughly two-thirds of U.S. upstream production transfers to Downstream and eliminates on consolidation.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$5.76B
Reported
2025 Q4
$5.51B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$6.12B
Reported
2026 Q2
$5.61B
Reported
Crude oil and NGL salesNatural gas salesThird-party gas marketing and trading
Units
189007000/qtr
growing +0.6% per quarter
189.0M boe in 2026 Q2: the disclosed record 2,077 MBOED across 91 days.
Price per unit
$30
drifting −0.8% per quarter
$29.67 per boe of reported revenue, not the $70.80 wellhead realisation: most barrels transfer out and eliminate.
U.S. Upstream
Latest: $5.06B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $3.62B |
| 2024Q2 | $3.39B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.37B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.54B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.42B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.31B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.76B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.51B |
| 2026Q1 | $6.12B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.61B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.54B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.48B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.43B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.40B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.36B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.34B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.31B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.29B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.26B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.24B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.22B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.20B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.19B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.17B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.15B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.13B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.11B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.10B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.08B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.06B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Revenue per boe here is $29.67, not the disclosed $70.80 wellhead liquids realisation: the segment line is post-elimination, so the realisation is a price sensitivity and not this line's unit price.
- Venezuela is outside these volumes entirely. The 10-Q states results there have been recorded as non-equity investments since 2020, income only on cash receipt, and that production and reserves are not included in the company's results.
- The EBITDA margin is capped at 100%: the brief derives 137.7% because intersegment transfers sit in the numerator and not in the denominator. The 2,114M of basis-quarter EBITDA that the cap cannot hold is credited to U.S. Downstream, which buys those barrels, so consolidated EBITDA still reconciles to the reported 22,766M.
- Units are a quarterly barrel count built from the disclosed daily rate at 91 days, so quarters of 90 or 92 days carry about a 1% counting difference the model does not correct.