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CVX · Forward model · All Other · Bear case

What has to happen in All Other

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This page changes All Other inside the complete CVX model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

CVX forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $121.23 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $117M 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$1.64B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Brent mean-reverts into the pre-conflict $68-81 band, the $1.4-1.5B of favourable timing effects reverse, and international downstream stays impaired. The anchor is Chevron's own history rather than a forecast: 2025 Q2 printed $44,822M of revenue at $68 Brent with U.S. downstream EBITDA at 4.2%. The 2027 Singapore and South-East Asia disposal removes international downstream base that nobody has sized, and gasoline demand already fell 4% year over year in a record throughput quarter. The compounding -1.1% delta lands the last projected quarter at $43.96B, on that 2025 Q2 anchor.

All Other

Basis quarter$146M
Final quarter$117M
Implied CAGR−4%
Final revenue mix0%

Worldwide cash management, debt financing, corporate administration, insurance, real estate and technology. It carried $146M of revenue in the basis quarter, about 0.2% of the consolidated line, and exists in this model so that the five verticals add to reported Total Revenues and Other Income exactly rather than approximately.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $286M Reported
2025 Q4 $136M Estimated
2026 Q1 $129M Reported
2026 Q2 $146M Reported
Corporate and other incomeInsurance operationsReal estate and technology
Sequential growth 0.0%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% Flat: $146M of corporate revenue with no operating driver, about 0.2% of the consolidated line.
All Other

Latest: $117M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $206M
2024Q2 $139M
2024Q3 $148M
2024Q4 $157M
2025Q1 $398M
2025Q2 −$176M
2025Q3 $286M
2025Q4 $136M
2026Q1 $129M
2026Q2 $146M
2026Q3E $144M
2026Q4E $143M
2027Q1E $141M
2027Q2E $140M
2027Q3E $138M
2027Q4E $137M
2028Q1E $135M
2028Q2E $134M
2028Q3E $132M
2028Q4E $131M
2029Q1E $129M
2029Q2E $128M
2029Q3E $126M
2029Q4E $125M
2030Q1E $124M
2030Q2E $122M
2030Q3E $121M
2030Q4E $120M
2031Q1E $118M
2031Q2E $117M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This line went negative in 2025 Q2 at -$176M. A multiplicative driver would break on a negative basis quarter; the 2026 Q2 base of +$146M is positive, so the engine is safe on this basis but the line must be watched at each refresh.
  • Its $1,108M quarterly cost block does not sit here. It is carried in corporate overhead at 1.58% of consolidated revenue so it is not double-counted against a $146M revenue stub, which is why this vertical's EBITDA margin is zero rather than -759%.
  • Carrying overhead as a percentage of revenue means it falls when the commodity price falls, which corporate costs do not really do. It is the only mechanism the engine offers, and in the bear case it charges $695M in the last projected quarter against a $1,108M cost block, about $400M a quarter too generous.
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