CVX · Forward model · International Downstream · Bear case
What has to happen in International Downstream
Model as of
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International Downstream
Basis quarter$25.57B
Final quarter$13.93B
Implied CAGR−11%
Final revenue mix32%
Refining, marketing and lubricants outside the United States, with crude unit inputs of 598 MBD in the basis quarter after a 10% fall the company attributes to Middle East supply disruption. Refined product sales of 1,287 MBD are more than twice the crude run, so reported revenue per input barrel moves with the sales-to-throughput mix as much as with price.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$16.48B
Reported
2025 Q4
$16.12B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$17.94B
Reported
2026 Q2
$25.57B
Reported
Refined product salesMarketing and lubricantsCrude and product trading
Units
54418000/qtr
growing +1.2% per quarter
54.4M bbl of crude unit input: the 598 MBD left after a 10% drop on Middle East supply disruption.
Price per unit
$470
drifting −11.5% per quarter
$469.86 per input barrel is a mix artefact - runs fell, product sales held - and reverts toward $305.
International Downstream
Latest: $13.93B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $17.70B |
| 2024Q2 | $20.09B |
| 2024Q3 | $19.29B |
| 2024Q4 | $18.79B |
| 2025Q1 | $16.82B |
| 2025Q2 | $16.50B |
| 2025Q3 | $16.48B |
| 2025Q4 | $16.12B |
| 2026Q1 | $17.94B |
| 2026Q2 | $25.57B |
| 2026Q3E | $22.65B |
| 2026Q4E | $20.67B |
| 2027Q1E | $19.27B |
| 2027Q2E | $18.25B |
| 2027Q3E | $17.49B |
| 2027Q4E | $16.91B |
| 2028Q1E | $16.45B |
| 2028Q2E | $16.08B |
| 2028Q3E | $15.77B |
| 2028Q4E | $15.51B |
| 2029Q1E | $15.29B |
| 2029Q2E | $15.09B |
| 2029Q3E | $14.91B |
| 2029Q4E | $14.75B |
| 2030Q1E | $14.60B |
| 2030Q2E | $14.45B |
| 2030Q3E | $14.31B |
| 2030Q4E | $14.18B |
| 2031Q1E | $14.05B |
| 2031Q2E | $13.93B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Chevron has signed an agreement to sell its 50% interest in Singapore Refining Company along with downstream assets in Singapore, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, expected to close in 2027. It has not sized the revenue that removes, so the model does not step the base down for it; the bear case carries it as an unquantified reduction.
- The $469.86 basis price per input barrel is a mix artefact more than a margin: crude runs fell 10% while product sales fell only 13% from a much larger base, so the ratio jumped. It glides back toward $305, near the 2024-2025 average.
- The Hong Kong fuels and lubricants business was sold in the basis quarter for about $290 million of proceeds, and the quarter also carried a $230M asset-sale gain that will not repeat.
- A one-off level step would be the right shape for the 2027 disposal, but the unit driver builds revenue from units and price and never reads the base, so baseShiftPct cannot move it. The bear case carries the reduction as a compounding growth delta instead.