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CVX · Forward model · U.S. Downstream · Bear case

What has to happen in U.S. Downstream

Model as of

This page changes U.S. Downstream inside the complete CVX model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

CVX forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $121.23 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $15.97B 36% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $18.73B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Brent mean-reverts into the pre-conflict $68-81 band, the $1.4-1.5B of favourable timing effects reverse, and international downstream stays impaired. The anchor is Chevron's own history rather than a forecast: 2025 Q2 printed $44,822M of revenue at $68 Brent with U.S. downstream EBITDA at 4.2%. The 2027 Singapore and South-East Asia disposal removes international downstream base that nobody has sized, and gasoline demand already fell 4% year over year in a record throughput quarter. The compounding -1.1% delta lands the last projected quarter at $43.96B, on that 2025 Q2 anchor.

Related research
News · Distillate Cracks Tripled to $106 a Barrel While Crude Fell. Our Refining Models Assume the Reverse. Gulf Coast distillate cracks went from $30 a barrel in 3Q25 to $106 on 9 September while WTI fell. Chevron's and Exxon's model prices drift down from here.

U.S. Downstream

Basis quarter$25.20B
Final quarter$15.97B
Implied CAGR−9%
Final revenue mix36%

Five U.S. refineries that ran a record 1,070 MBD of crude unit inputs at more than 97% utilisation in the basis quarter, plus marketing, lubricants and CPChem equity income. Throughput is disclosed and is close to its ceiling, so this line is a price and margin story with almost no volume headroom left.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $16.84B Reported
2025 Q4 $15.17B Estimated
2026 Q1 $16.58B Reported
2026 Q2 $25.20B Reported
Refined product salesMarketing and lubricantsCPChem equity income
Units 97370000/qtr growing +0.3% per quarter 97.4M bbl of crude unit input in 2026 Q2: the record 1,070 MBD across 91 days.
Price per unit $247 drifting −7.5% per quarter $247.41 per input barrel: the $258.79 print deseasonalised by the 1.046 factor the engine reapplies.
U.S. Downstream

Latest: $15.97B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $17.89B
2024Q2 $19.23B
2024Q3 $18.18B
2024Q4 $16.74B
2025Q1 $17.02B
2025Q2 $16.89B
2025Q3 $16.84B
2025Q4 $15.17B
2026Q1 $16.58B
2026Q2 $25.20B
2026Q3E $22.47B
2026Q4E $19.17B
2027Q1E $19.96B
2027Q2E $19.82B
2027Q3E $18.66B
2027Q4E $16.57B
2028Q1E $17.78B
2028Q2E $18.04B
2028Q3E $17.27B
2028Q4E $15.52B
2029Q1E $16.80B
2029Q2E $17.16B
2029Q3E $16.50B
2029Q4E $14.88B
2030Q1E $16.15B
2030Q2E $16.53B
2030Q3E $15.91B
2030Q4E $14.37B
2031Q1E $15.60B
2031Q2E $15.97B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is the only Chevron line whose quarterly shape repeats inside a tight band, so it is the only one carrying seasonal factors: 1.013, 1.046, 1.016, 0.925 on calendar quarters, with a Q4 that sits 7-8% below the annual mean in every window available.
  • Because the unit driver ignores the basis level the engine deseasonalises, the price input is stated deseasonalised: $247.41 is the $258.79 print divided by the 1.046 second-quarter factor the engine then reapplies quarter by quarter.
  • The volume ceiling of 100.4M barrels a quarter is 1,103 MBD of implied nameplate, derived from 1,070 MBD at more than 97% utilisation. The path reaches it and stops, which is the honest shape of a refining system with no headroom.
  • The basis EBITDA margin of 21.5% is the 13.1% derived from the segment column plus the $2,114M of U.S. Upstream EBITDA that a 100% cap cannot hold. It glides to the 6% terminal the brief supports, so the credit unwinds as the transfer artefact does.
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