CVX · Forward model · International Upstream · Bear case
What has to happen in International Upstream
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International Upstream
Basis quarter$13.54B
Final quarter$8.89B
Implied CAGR−8%
Final revenue mix20%
Tengiz, Guyana's Stabroek block through legacy Hess, Australian LNG, West Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Partitioned Zone. Volume is disclosed quarterly, and the revenue line also carries large equity-affiliate income - $1,303M from TCO and others in the basis quarter - that a pure wellhead price times volume driver would miss entirely.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$10.36B
Reported
2025 Q4
$9.94B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$7.84B
Reported
2026 Q2
$13.54B
Reported
Crude oil and NGL liftingsLNG and pipeline gasEquity affiliate income (TCO and others)
Units
181363000/qtr
growing +0.6% per quarter
181.4M boe in 2026 Q2: 1,993 MBOED across 91 days, with Partitioned Zone curtailment already in it.
Price per unit
$75
drifting −8.5% per quarter
$74.63 per boe on a $104 Brent quarter, TCO equity income included; assumed to revert toward $55.
International Upstream
Latest: $8.89B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $9.30B |
| 2024Q2 | $8.34B |
| 2024Q3 | $9.67B |
| 2024Q4 | $12.00B |
| 2025Q1 | $8.95B |
| 2025Q2 | $7.30B |
| 2025Q3 | $10.36B |
| 2025Q4 | $9.94B |
| 2026Q1 | $7.84B |
| 2026Q2 | $13.54B |
| 2026Q3E | $12.32B |
| 2026Q4E | $11.48B |
| 2027Q1E | $10.89B |
| 2027Q2E | $10.46B |
| 2027Q3E | $10.14B |
| 2027Q4E | $9.90B |
| 2028Q1E | $9.72B |
| 2028Q2E | $9.57B |
| 2028Q3E | $9.46B |
| 2028Q4E | $9.37B |
| 2029Q1E | $9.29B |
| 2029Q2E | $9.23B |
| 2029Q3E | $9.17B |
| 2029Q4E | $9.12B |
| 2030Q1E | $9.08B |
| 2030Q2E | $9.04B |
| 2030Q3E | $9.00B |
| 2030Q4E | $8.96B |
| 2031Q1E | $8.93B |
| 2031Q2E | $8.89B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Partitioned Zone volumes were curtailed in the basis quarter by the Middle East conflict, so the 1,993 MBOED starting point is a constrained number rather than a capacity number.
- The $74.63 per boe basis price sits far above the $47-60 range of the eight preceding quarters because Brent averaged $104. The driver glides it back to about $55 by 2031, which is an assumed mid-cycle level, not a disclosed forecast.
- The Iraq heads of agreement covering West Qurna 2 and Nasiriyah is pre-FID and carries no modelled volume, and no Venezuela barrel is added because those volumes are outside reported production.