CVX · Forward model · U.S. Upstream · Bull case
What has to happen in U.S. Upstream
Model as of
This page changes U.S. Upstream inside the complete CVX model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
U.S. Upstream
Basis quarter$5.61B
Final quarter$7.26B
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix12%
Permian, Gulf of America, DJ and the legacy Hess Bakken barrels. Volume is disclosed every quarter and is the constraint management guides to 2030; price is Brent-linked and outside the company's control. The reported revenue line is small against the barrels because roughly two-thirds of U.S. upstream production transfers to Downstream and eliminates on consolidation.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$5.76B
Reported
2025 Q4
$5.51B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$6.12B
Reported
2026 Q2
$5.61B
Reported
Crude oil and NGL salesNatural gas salesThird-party gas marketing and trading
Units
189007000/qtr
growing +0.6% per quarter
189.0M boe in 2026 Q2: the disclosed record 2,077 MBOED across 91 days.
Price per unit
$30
drifting −0.8% per quarter
$29.67 per boe of reported revenue, not the $70.80 wellhead realisation: most barrels transfer out and eliminate.
U.S. Upstream
Latest: $7.26B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $3.62B |
| 2024Q2 | $3.39B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.37B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.54B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.42B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.31B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.76B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.51B |
| 2026Q1 | $6.12B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.61B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.64B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.68B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.74B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.80B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.87B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.94B |
| 2028Q1E | $6.02B |
| 2028Q2E | $6.11B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.19B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.28B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.37B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.46B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.56B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.65B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.75B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.85B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.95B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.05B |
| 2031Q1E | $7.15B |
| 2031Q2E | $7.26B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Revenue per boe here is $29.67, not the disclosed $70.80 wellhead liquids realisation: the segment line is post-elimination, so the realisation is a price sensitivity and not this line's unit price.
- Venezuela is outside these volumes entirely. The 10-Q states results there have been recorded as non-equity investments since 2020, income only on cash receipt, and that production and reserves are not included in the company's results.
- The EBITDA margin is capped at 100%: the brief derives 137.7% because intersegment transfers sit in the numerator and not in the denominator. The 2,114M of basis-quarter EBITDA that the cap cannot hold is credited to U.S. Downstream, which buys those barrels, so consolidated EBITDA still reconciles to the reported 22,766M.
- Units are a quarterly barrel count built from the disclosed daily rate at 91 days, so quarters of 90 or 92 days carry about a 1% counting difference the model does not correct.