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COIN · Forward model · Other subscription and services · Bull case

What has to happen in Other subscription and services

Model as of

This page changes Other subscription and services inside the complete COIN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

COIN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $173.65 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $292M 13% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $2.57B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Share gains compound into a recovering tape while the cost reset holds, so operating leverage returns faster than revenue does. The six points of margin here are about a third of the nineteen-point gap between the 65.3% of revenue this model spends on overhead and the 46% the company own cost plan implies at a recovered revenue base. What this case does not reach is the December 2024 peak revenue of $2,272M in a quarter, and it does not assume US perpetuals or unified Deribit liquidity are live and monetised.

Other subscription and services

Basis quarter$114M
Final quarter$292M
Implied CAGR+21%
Final revenue mix13%

Coinbase One membership fees, custody fees, Coinbase One Card interchange and other services. Coinbase says paid Coinbase One subscribers hit an all-time high but publishes no count, no ARPU and no custody fee schedule, so a genuine subscription driver cannot be built and sequential growth is the honest choice.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $143M Reported
2025 Q4 $152M Estimated
2026 Q1 $109M Reported
2026 Q2 $114M Reported
Coinbase One subscription feesCustody fees, including spot bitcoin ETF custodyCoinbase One Card and other services
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% Rose 4% in Q2 against a falling tape; Q3 loses the performance earn-outs the deck flags.
Other subscription and services

Latest: $292M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $141M
2025Q2 $119M
2025Q3 $143M
2025Q4 $152M
2026Q1 $109M
2026Q2 $114M
2026Q3E $119M
2026Q4E $124M
2027Q1E $130M
2027Q2E $136M
2027Q3E $142M
2027Q4E $149M
2028Q1E $156M
2028Q2E $164M
2028Q3E $172M
2028Q4E $180M
2029Q1E $189M
2029Q2E $198M
2029Q3E $208M
2029Q4E $218M
2030Q1E $229M
2030Q2E $240M
2030Q3E $252M
2030Q4E $265M
2031Q1E $278M
2031Q2E $292M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This was the only line in the business that grew sequentially in 2026 Q2, and it is the line on which the diversification claim ultimately rests. It is also the least disclosed one.
  • A subscriber count would promote this vertical to a subscription driver. The widely quoted 1 million-plus Coinbase One figure appears in no filing and no deck, so it is deliberately absent from every input here.
  • Custody fees move with ETF assets, which fell in 2026 Q2 on ETF outflows, and the Q3 outlook flags the roll-off of Q2 performance earn-outs as a headwind.
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