COIN · Forward model · Bull case
The Bull case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Every one of the eight verticals is a line Coinbase files in its quarterly revenue disaggregation table, so nothing here is apportioned: the eight sum to filed total revenue to the dollar in all six quarters ($2,034,295K, $1,497,208K, $1,868,693K, $1,781,129K, $1,412,982K and $1,220,068K). Two quarters carry derived figures. Revenue on Coinbase own USDC balances was reclassified out of stablecoin revenue and into corporate interest and other income beginning with the Q1 2026 10-Q, so 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4 stablecoin revenue is restated down by the deck rounded $30M and $33M and corporate interest absorbs the same amount; the FY2025 10-K is on the old basis. Every quarter of corporate interest is derived as total revenue less transaction revenue less subscription and services revenue, and 2025 Q4 for the other seven lines is the filed full year less the filed nine months. What is assumed is the cost side. Coinbase has one reportable segment and attributes no cost below the consolidated transaction-expense ratio, so all seven revenue-generating verticals carry the same 83.6% contribution margin derived from transaction expense of $189,790K on net revenue of $1,154,301K, and corporate interest carries 100% because transaction expense is charged against net revenue, which excludes it. Cash overhead sits at 65.3% of revenue, the derived 2026 Q2 ratio: adjusted expenses of $1,034.8M less $238.3M of stock compensation is $796.5M. At the basis quarter that produces $234.1M of model EBITDA against $207.8M of reported adjusted EBITDA, the $22M gap being crypto operating losses of $31.7M net of $10.0M of other operating income. The research brief assumed overhead falls to 46% of revenue in the long run, which needs about $7.4B of revenue against $3.4B of cost; this model base path reaches $5.4B, so holding 65.3% keeps overhead at $3.0-3.4B a year, right on the guided FY2026 range, and the operating leverage lives in the scenario margin deltas instead. Buybacks and the convertible repayment are deliberately not modelled as capital programmes: they are financing, not capex, and subtracting them would double-count cash the discounted flows already value. No vertical carries seasonality: six quarters of line detail yield a centred four-quarter moving average for 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4 only, which leaves Q1 and Q2 with no observation at all and each of the other two with a single window, so no factor can be estimated and the two ratios that exist measure the 2025 cycle upswing and the Deribit consolidation rather than a season.
Share gains compound into a recovering tape while the cost reset holds, so operating leverage returns faster than revenue does. The six points of margin here are about a third of the nineteen-point gap between the 65.3% of revenue this model spends on overhead and the 46% the company own cost plan implies at a recovered revenue base. What this case does not reach is the December 2024 peak revenue of $2,272M in a quarter, and it does not assume US perpetuals or unified Deribit liquidity are live and monetised.
Latest: $2.29B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $2.03B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.50B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.87B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.78B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.41B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.22B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.21B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.22B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.23B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.26B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.28B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.32B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.36B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.40B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.45B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.50B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.56B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.62B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.69B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.76B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.83B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.91B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.00B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.09B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.19B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.29B |
What drives each segment
Consumer transaction
Units × priceRetail order flow: consumer crypto spot volume times a take rate. The take rate has risen five straight quarters to 1.75% because prediction-market and consumer perpetuals fees land in this line while their contract volume is not counted inside crypto spot volume.
Latest: $727M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $1.10B |
| 2025Q2 | $650M |
| 2025Q3 | $844M |
| 2025Q4 | $734M |
| 2026Q1 | $567M |
| 2026Q2 | $452M |
| 2026Q3E | $440M |
| 2026Q4E | $433M |
| 2027Q1E | $431M |
| 2027Q2E | $432M |
| 2027Q3E | $436M |
| 2027Q4E | $443M |
| 2028Q1E | $452M |
| 2028Q2E | $463M |
| 2028Q3E | $475M |
| 2028Q4E | $490M |
| 2029Q1E | $507M |
| 2029Q2E | $525M |
| 2029Q3E | $544M |
| 2029Q4E | $565M |
| 2030Q1E | $588M |
| 2030Q2E | $613M |
| 2030Q3E | $639M |
| 2030Q4E | $666M |
| 2031Q1E | $696M |
| 2031Q2E | $727M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- One unit is $1M of consumer crypto spot volume: 25,800 units in 2026 Q2 at $17,507 of revenue each is the disclosed $25.8B of volume at the derived 1.7506% take rate.
- The take rate is a blend, not a fee schedule. Prediction markets crossed $100M of annualised net revenue in 2026 Q2 and more than doubled sequentially, which is why the rate rises while spot volume falls.
- The deck reports about $130M of transaction revenue in the first 26 days of 2026 Q3, which a naive extrapolation would turn into roughly $460M for the quarter against the $571M of total transaction revenue this model projects. The deck says in terms not to extrapolate it, and this model does not.
- Volume history is a cycle, not a season: with six quarters of filed line detail a centred four-quarter moving average yields ratios for 2025 Q3 (1.103) and 2025 Q4 (1.089) only, and none at all for Q1 or Q2, so no seasonal factor can be derived and none is applied.
Institutional transaction
Units × priceExchange and Prime flow from funds, market makers and corporates, plus Deribit-led crypto derivatives. Revenue is institutional volume times a very thin take rate. Deribit consolidated from 2025 Q3, which is why the rate on spot volume roughly tripled between 2025 Q2 and 2025 Q4.
Latest: $207M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $99M |
| 2025Q2 | $61M |
| 2025Q3 | $135M |
| 2025Q4 | $185M |
| 2026Q1 | $136M |
| 2026Q2 | $100M |
| 2026Q3E | $100M |
| 2026Q4E | $100M |
| 2027Q1E | $101M |
| 2027Q2E | $103M |
| 2027Q3E | $106M |
| 2027Q4E | $109M |
| 2028Q1E | $113M |
| 2028Q2E | $117M |
| 2028Q3E | $121M |
| 2028Q4E | $127M |
| 2029Q1E | $132M |
| 2029Q2E | $138M |
| 2029Q3E | $145M |
| 2029Q4E | $152M |
| 2030Q1E | $160M |
| 2030Q2E | $168M |
| 2030Q3E | $177M |
| 2030Q4E | $186M |
| 2031Q1E | $196M |
| 2031Q2E | $207M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- One unit is $1M of institutional spot volume: 120,600 units in 2026 Q2 at $830 of revenue each is the disclosed $120.6B of volume at the derived 0.08298% take rate.
- The rate is a blend and not a price. Derivatives notional of $1,060.6B is monetised in the same line, so on spot plus derivatives together the take rate is 0.0085%, and a mix shift toward derivatives moves the headline rate without touching revenue.
- Coinbase crypto trading volume market share reached an all-time high 10.3% in 2026 Q2, a third consecutive gain, while total market crypto spot volume fell 25% sequentially. This model does not assume further share gains.
- The same six-quarter limit applies as on the consumer line, with the 2025 Q4 moving-average ratio of 1.380 measuring the Deribit consolidation rather than a season, so no seasonality is applied.
Other transaction
Growth pathBase network revenue, Coinbase Wallet and other transaction fees. Coinbase publishes no volume or fee metric for this line, so sequential growth on the filed total is the only honest driver.
Latest: $69M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $68M |
| 2025Q2 | $54M |
| 2025Q3 | $68M |
| 2025Q4 | $64M |
| 2026Q1 | $53M |
| 2026Q2 | $47M |
| 2026Q3E | $46M |
| 2026Q4E | $45M |
| 2027Q1E | $44M |
| 2027Q2E | $44M |
| 2027Q3E | $44M |
| 2027Q4E | $44M |
| 2028Q1E | $45M |
| 2028Q2E | $46M |
| 2028Q3E | $47M |
| 2028Q4E | $48M |
| 2029Q1E | $49M |
| 2029Q2E | $51M |
| 2029Q3E | $53M |
| 2029Q4E | $55M |
| 2030Q1E | $57M |
| 2030Q2E | $59M |
| 2030Q3E | $61M |
| 2030Q4E | $64M |
| 2031Q1E | $66M |
| 2031Q2E | $69M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The deck attributes the 11% sequential decline in 2026 Q2 largely to lower Base revenue. Base sequencer economics are policy rather than contract, and Coinbase has repeatedly cut Base fees.
- Base carried more than 99% of agentic stablecoin transaction volume in 2026 Q2 and none of that throughput is monetised in proportion to its scale, so this line is deliberately the smallest in the model.
Stablecoin revenue
Subscribers × ARPUInterest earned on USDC reserves. The base is a balance rather than a subscriber count and the price is a yield: Coinbase keeps essentially all reserve income on USDC held inside its own products and a contractual share of the income on USDC held elsewhere. Both balances and both revenue halves are disclosed, which makes this the best-evidenced driver in the model.
Latest: $678M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $274M |
| 2025Q2 | $309M |
| 2025Q3 | $325M |
| 2025Q4 | $331M |
| 2026Q1 | $305M |
| 2026Q2 | $292M |
| 2026Q3E | $304M |
| 2026Q4E | $316M |
| 2027Q1E | $329M |
| 2027Q2E | $342M |
| 2027Q3E | $355M |
| 2027Q4E | $369M |
| 2028Q1E | $384M |
| 2028Q2E | $399M |
| 2028Q3E | $415M |
| 2028Q4E | $431M |
| 2029Q1E | $448M |
| 2029Q2E | $469M |
| 2029Q3E | $491M |
| 2029Q4E | $514M |
| 2030Q1E | $539M |
| 2030Q2E | $564M |
| 2030Q3E | $591M |
| 2030Q4E | $619M |
| 2031Q1E | $648M |
| 2031Q2E | $678M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A subscriber here is $1,000 of customer USDC held inside Coinbase products and ARPU is the monthly reserve income it earns: 17,000,000 of them at $2.86 a month is the derived $146M a quarter on a $17B balance, a 3.44% annualised yield.
- The addressable base is average USDC market capitalisation of $77B, so the attach rate is the 22.1% of all USDC that sits inside Coinbase products. Non-subscriber revenue is the other half of the line: $146M earned on the $57B held off-platform, a derived 1.03% annualised yield that mixes the reserve rate with an undisclosed Circle split.
- The deck build is exact: on-platform revenue $174M less $28M earned on corporate balances is $146M, plus $146M off-platform, against filed stablecoin revenue of $292,147K.
- The 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4 figures are restated onto the current basis by removing the $30M and $33M of corporate-balance revenue that the Q1 2026 10-Q moved into corporate interest and other income; that amount is carried in the corporate interest vertical, so every quarter still sums to filed total revenue.
- This line is a duration bet on short rates as much as a crypto bet: balances hit an all-time high in 2026 Q2 and revenue still fell 5%, because the rate fell faster than the balance grew.
Blockchain rewards
Growth pathStaking commissions on customer assets. Revenue falls out of staked units times token price times protocol reward rate times the commission, and Coinbase discloses none of those four, so sequential growth on the filed total is the only defensible driver.
Latest: $105M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $197M |
| 2025Q2 | $145M |
| 2025Q3 | $185M |
| 2025Q4 | $152M |
| 2026Q1 | $101M |
| 2026Q2 | $83M |
| 2026Q3E | $73M |
| 2026Q4E | $68M |
| 2027Q1E | $65M |
| 2027Q2E | $63M |
| 2027Q3E | $63M |
| 2027Q4E | $63M |
| 2028Q1E | $64M |
| 2028Q2E | $66M |
| 2028Q3E | $68M |
| 2028Q4E | $70M |
| 2029Q1E | $72M |
| 2029Q2E | $75M |
| 2029Q3E | $78M |
| 2029Q4E | $81M |
| 2030Q1E | $85M |
| 2030Q2E | $89M |
| 2030Q3E | $92M |
| 2030Q4E | $96M |
| 2031Q1E | $101M |
| 2031Q2E | $105M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Assets on platform fell 16% to $246B in 2026 Q2, mostly on spot-bitcoin-ETF outflows where Coinbase is primary custodian, and blockchain rewards fell 17% even as native units staked rose. Revenue at 0.0339% of assets on platform is a ratio, not a disclosed rate.
- The research brief proposed a 0.15 decay on this line. That would hold it in decline for thirteen straight quarters, which contradicts the recovering volume path the same brief assumes for trading, so the decay is raised to 0.25: the line troughs at $54M in 2027 and recovers to $64M, still 23% below the 2026 Q2 print.
- Staked balances, native units and commission rates are all undisclosed, so no unit driver can be built here without inventing one.
Interest and finance fee income
Growth pathInterest and financing fees on customer credit: the Borrow and Lend products, margin and Prime financing. Coinbase discloses one balance metric that plainly covers only part of the earning base, so this line is modelled as sequential growth with that balance as context.
Latest: $119M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $63M |
| 2025Q2 | $59M |
| 2025Q3 | $65M |
| 2025Q4 | $60M |
| 2026Q1 | $68M |
| 2026Q2 | $66M |
| 2026Q3E | $66M |
| 2026Q4E | $67M |
| 2027Q1E | $68M |
| 2027Q2E | $69M |
| 2027Q3E | $71M |
| 2027Q4E | $72M |
| 2028Q1E | $74M |
| 2028Q2E | $76M |
| 2028Q3E | $79M |
| 2028Q4E | $81M |
| 2029Q1E | $84M |
| 2029Q2E | $87M |
| 2029Q3E | $90M |
| 2029Q4E | $94M |
| 2030Q1E | $97M |
| 2030Q2E | $101M |
| 2030Q3E | $105M |
| 2030Q4E | $109M |
| 2031Q1E | $114M |
| 2031Q2E | $119M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Average borrow/lend balances reached an all-time high $1,491M in 2026 Q2, up from $199M a year earlier, and this line still fell 2%. The implied 17.7% annualised yield on that balance is the evidence that borrow/lend is only part of the base.
- Loan receivables of $1,572,354K at 30 June 2026 against $1,354,692K at 31 December 2025 are the closest filed proxy for the earning base, and credit losses on the Borrow book are not separately disclosed.
Other subscription and services
Growth pathCoinbase One membership fees, custody fees, Coinbase One Card interchange and other services. Coinbase says paid Coinbase One subscribers hit an all-time high but publishes no count, no ARPU and no custody fee schedule, so a genuine subscription driver cannot be built and sequential growth is the honest choice.
Latest: $292M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $141M |
| 2025Q2 | $119M |
| 2025Q3 | $143M |
| 2025Q4 | $152M |
| 2026Q1 | $109M |
| 2026Q2 | $114M |
| 2026Q3E | $119M |
| 2026Q4E | $124M |
| 2027Q1E | $130M |
| 2027Q2E | $136M |
| 2027Q3E | $142M |
| 2027Q4E | $149M |
| 2028Q1E | $156M |
| 2028Q2E | $164M |
| 2028Q3E | $172M |
| 2028Q4E | $180M |
| 2029Q1E | $189M |
| 2029Q2E | $198M |
| 2029Q3E | $208M |
| 2029Q4E | $218M |
| 2030Q1E | $229M |
| 2030Q2E | $240M |
| 2030Q3E | $252M |
| 2030Q4E | $265M |
| 2031Q1E | $278M |
| 2031Q2E | $292M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This was the only line in the business that grew sequentially in 2026 Q2, and it is the line on which the diversification claim ultimately rests. It is also the least disclosed one.
- A subscriber count would promote this vertical to a subscription driver. The widely quoted 1 million-plus Coinbase One figure appears in no filing and no deck, so it is deliberately absent from every input here.
- Custody fees move with ETF assets, which fell in 2026 Q2 on ETF outflows, and the Q3 outlook flags the roll-off of Q2 performance earn-outs as a headwind.
Corporate interest and other income
Subscribers × ARPUInterest on Coinbase own treasury: money market funds, short-duration Treasuries, bank cash and its own USDC balances. It sits outside net revenue in Coinbase presentation but inside total revenue, so the model must carry it. The base is the corporate cash balance and the price is the yield on it.
Latest: $91M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $97M |
| 2025Q2 | $101M |
| 2025Q3 | $106M |
| 2025Q4 | $104M |
| 2026Q1 | $74M |
| 2026Q2 | $66M |
| 2026Q3E | $65M |
| 2026Q4E | $65M |
| 2027Q1E | $66M |
| 2027Q2E | $66M |
| 2027Q3E | $67M |
| 2027Q4E | $68M |
| 2028Q1E | $69M |
| 2028Q2E | $70M |
| 2028Q3E | $71M |
| 2028Q4E | $73M |
| 2029Q1E | $74M |
| 2029Q2E | $75M |
| 2029Q3E | $77M |
| 2029Q4E | $78M |
| 2030Q1E | $80M |
| 2030Q2E | $81M |
| 2030Q3E | $84M |
| 2030Q4E | $86M |
| 2031Q1E | $89M |
| 2031Q2E | $91M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A subscriber here is $1,000 of corporate cash and ARPU is the monthly interest it earns: 8,614,065 of them at $2.54 a month is the filed $8,614,065K balance at a derived 3.05% annualised yield.
- The addressable base is the $11.1B of available resources the deck describes: cash and equivalents plus $174,778K of marketable investments, $1,468,395K of crypto assets held for investment and $840,287K of strategic investments. Treasury is 77.6% of it today and glides toward 70% as buybacks and debt repayment draw it down.
- Every quarter of this line is derived as total revenue less transaction revenue less subscription and services revenue on the current basis, because revenue on Coinbase own USDC balances was reclassified into it from stablecoin revenue beginning with the Q1 2026 10-Q. That reclassification is the single largest basis trap in this ticker history.
- This is a treasury outcome rather than an operating result and should not be read as business quality: it falls with rates and with any large buyback or debt repayment.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 shareholder deck - the market backdrop in Coinbase own words
- Jul 30, 2026 Total Market Crypto Spot Trading Volume declined 25% Q/Q and Total Crypto Market Capitalization declined 11% Q/Q including double digit declines in BTC, ETH, and SOL.
- Jul 30, 2026 Net revenue of $1,154,301 thousand with transaction expense of $189,790 thousand, 16.4% of net revenue against a low-to-mid teens outlook.
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 shareholder deck - share gains and the new product lines
- Jul 30, 2026 Reached ATH in Coinbase Crypto Trading Volume Market Share; gained share in both Spot and Derivatives. Prediction Markets: $100M+ annualized revenue as of Q2 26; >2x revenue and contracts growth Q/Q.
- Jul 30, 2026 Current 2026 Outlook of $4,200-$4,450M of adjusted expenses, reduced and narrowed from the initial $4,250-$4,600M outlook, about $600M below the 2025 annualised exit rate.
Everything Exchange case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Everything Exchange column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 shareholder deck - the multi-asset exchange roadmap
- Jul 30, 2026 Trade every asset class in one place: crypto, equities, prediction markets, commodities, and FX with deep liquidity and capital efficiency.
- Jul 30, 2026 Coming Soon: Bringing US customers into global perpetuals liquidity via CFTC-regulated pathway; Unified global liquidity for US and International customers through Deribit.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $4.50B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $8.57B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $2.09B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 7.5x |
| Terminal value | $64.26B |
| Discounted at 10.5% a year, terminal value becomes | $39.01B |
| Enterprise value | $43.51B |
| Net cash | $2.31B |
| Equity value | $45.81B |
| Shares | 0.26B |
| Fair value per share | $173.65 |
| Against the current price of $190.72 | -9% |
5.5x terminal revenue against about 7.3x trailing revenue at $181.78 today. On this model own terminal EBITDA of $998M that same multiple is 29.9x, which is far above the 18x a mature regulated exchange fetches, and it is deliberate: the revenue multiple is where the operating leverage that this model does not put in the cash flows gets paid for. Value it on 18x terminal EBITDA instead and the base case is about $57 a share rather than $82.50. The multiple, not any operating input, is the biggest single lever on the answer.
Read the other way round: at $190.72 the market is paying 8.4x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Consumer transaction | Institutional transaction | Other transaction | Stablecoin revenue | Blockchain rewards | Interest and finance fee income | Other subscription and services | Corporate interest and other income | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $440M | $100M | $46M | $304M | $73M | $66M | $119M | $65M | $1.21B | -35% | $305M | $4M | $229M | -16 | $223M |
| 2026 Q4E | $433M | $100M | $45M | $316M | $68M | $67M | $124M | $65M | $1.22B | -32% | $305M | $3M | $229M | -13 | $218M |
| 2027 Q1E | $431M | $101M | $44M | $329M | $65M | $68M | $130M | $66M | $1.23B | -13% | $308M | $3M | $232M | +6 | $215M |
| 2027 Q2E | $432M | $103M | $44M | $342M | $63M | $69M | $136M | $66M | $1.26B | +3% | $313M | $3M | $235M | +22 | $213M |
| 2027 Q3E | $436M | $106M | $44M | $355M | $63M | $71M | $142M | $67M | $1.28B | +6% | $319M | $4M | $240M | +25 | $212M |
| 2027 Q4E | $443M | $109M | $44M | $369M | $63M | $72M | $149M | $68M | $1.32B | +8% | $327M | $4M | $246M | +27 | $212M |
| 2028 Q1E | $452M | $113M | $45M | $384M | $64M | $74M | $156M | $69M | $1.36B | +10% | $336M | $4M | $253M | +29 | $212M |
| 2028 Q2E | $463M | $117M | $46M | $399M | $66M | $76M | $164M | $70M | $1.40B | +12% | $347M | $4M | $260M | +30 | $213M |
| 2028 Q3E | $475M | $121M | $47M | $415M | $68M | $79M | $172M | $71M | $1.45B | +13% | $358M | $4M | $269M | +31 | $215M |
| 2028 Q4E | $490M | $127M | $48M | $431M | $70M | $81M | $180M | $73M | $1.50B | +14% | $370M | $4M | $278M | +32 | $217M |
| 2029 Q1E | $507M | $132M | $49M | $448M | $72M | $84M | $189M | $74M | $1.56B | +15% | $383M | $4M | $288M | +33 | $219M |
| 2029 Q2E | $525M | $138M | $51M | $469M | $75M | $87M | $198M | $75M | $1.62B | +16% | $398M | $4M | $299M | +34 | $222M |
| 2029 Q3E | $544M | $145M | $53M | $491M | $78M | $90M | $208M | $77M | $1.69B | +16% | $414M | $4M | $311M | +35 | $225M |
| 2029 Q4E | $565M | $152M | $55M | $514M | $81M | $94M | $218M | $78M | $1.76B | +17% | $431M | $5M | $324M | +36 | $229M |
| 2030 Q1E | $588M | $160M | $57M | $539M | $85M | $97M | $229M | $80M | $1.83B | +18% | $449M | $5M | $338M | +36 | $232M |
| 2030 Q2E | $613M | $168M | $59M | $564M | $89M | $101M | $240M | $81M | $1.91B | +18% | $468M | $5M | $352M | +37 | $236M |
| 2030 Q3E | $639M | $177M | $61M | $591M | $92M | $105M | $252M | $84M | $2.00B | +19% | $489M | $5M | $368M | +37 | $241M |
| 2030 Q4E | $666M | $186M | $64M | $619M | $96M | $109M | $265M | $86M | $2.09B | +19% | $511M | $5M | $384M | +37 | $245M |
| 2031 Q1E | $696M | $196M | $66M | $648M | $101M | $114M | $278M | $89M | $2.19B | +19% | $534M | $6M | $401M | +38 | $250M |
| 2031 Q2E | $727M | $207M | $69M | $678M | $105M | $119M | $292M | $91M | $2.29B | +19% | $558M | $6M | $419M | +38 | $255M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | all | $82.50 | First published model, built on the 2026 Q2 10-Q and shareholder deck. Eight filed revenue lines, no invented split, and the corporate USDC reclassification carried through all six quarters of history. |