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AMZN · Forward model · North America · Bull case

What has to happen in North America

Model as of

This page changes North America inside the complete AMZN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMZN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $635.64 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $247.06B 47% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $316.39B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The build is the moat. AWS holds its build rate instead of fading it, Trainium takes enough of the inference workload to hold revenue per megawatt flat rather than falling, and the margin keeps widening the way it did this quarter - 650 basis points in a year while absorbing the heaviest capex in the company's history. Retail margins keep pace as advertising compounds at mid-twenties growth on a base that costs almost nothing to serve, and Leo turns the constellation into a second subscription business with AWS-like economics once it is overhead.

North America

Basis quarter$116.21B
Final quarter$247.06B
Implied CAGR+16%
Final revenue mix47%

Online and physical stores, third-party seller services, subscriptions and the North American half of advertising. $116.2B in 2026 Q2, up 16%, with operating income up 21% to $9.1B - revenue growing fast for a business this size and profit growing faster, which is the mix shift toward advertising and seller services showing up in the margin line rather than in the growth line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $106.27B Reported
2025 Q4 $127.09B Reported
2026 Q1 $104.12B Reported
2026 Q2 $116.21B Reported
Online storesThird-party seller servicesAdvertising services (North America)Subscription services (Prime)Physical stores
Sequential growth +3.6%/qtr decaying toward +1.8% 3.6% a quarter, about the 16% year-over-year just posted. Q3 guidance is softer on a Prime Day timing shift.
North America

Latest: $247.06B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $92.89B
2025Q2 $100.07B
2025Q3 $106.27B
2025Q4 $127.09B
2026Q1 $104.12B
2026Q2 $116.21B
2026Q3E $126.40B
2026Q4E $154.55B
2027Q1E $126.84B
2027Q2E $139.28B
2027Q3E $150.57B
2027Q4E $183.08B
2028Q1E $149.51B
2028Q2E $163.43B
2028Q3E $175.96B
2028Q4E $213.17B
2029Q1E $173.51B
2029Q2E $189.10B
2029Q3E $203.05B
2029Q4E $245.41B
2030Q1E $199.32B
2030Q2E $216.80B
2030Q3E $232.39B
2030Q4E $280.42B
2031Q1E $227.43B
2031Q2E $247.06B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Carried as a growth rate rather than as customers x spend because Amazon publishes neither: the Prime member count has not been updated since the 200 million figure of 2021, and it is a global number that cannot be assigned to a segment. A customers-times-spend model here would be two invented inputs multiplied together to reproduce a number Amazon already discloses.
  • 3.6% a quarter is roughly the 16% year-over-year this segment just posted, and it decays to 1.75% - about 7% a year - by the end of the window. Holding mid-teens growth on a $450B-a-year revenue base for five years is the single easiest way to make this model say anything you like, so it is not held.
  • Quarterly revenue is seasonally shaped from Amazon's reported 2025 segment sales after removing the disclosed 10% annual growth trend. The factors average to one, so they move revenue between quarters without changing the underlying annual run rate: Q4 carries the holiday peak and Q1 resets below it.
  • The EBITDA margin of 12% is the disclosed 7.8% operating margin plus an assumed share of fulfilment and transportation depreciation. It glides to 15% because advertising and third-party seller fees grow faster than the retail revenue they attach to, which is the same mix shift that took operating income up 21% on 16% revenue growth.
  • Capex intensity of 7% covers fulfilment centres, the transportation network and the robotics programme. It is a small share of the roughly $200B Amazon has guided for 2026 - almost all of that is AWS, and it is charged there.
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