AMZN · Forward model · North America · Jassy case
What has to happen in North America
Model as of
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North America
Basis quarter$116.21B
Final quarter$223.78B
Implied CAGR+14%
Final revenue mix45%
Online and physical stores, third-party seller services, subscriptions and the North American half of advertising. $116.2B in 2026 Q2, up 16%, with operating income up 21% to $9.1B - revenue growing fast for a business this size and profit growing faster, which is the mix shift toward advertising and seller services showing up in the margin line rather than in the growth line.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$106.27B
Reported
2025 Q4
$127.09B
Reported
2026 Q1
$104.12B
Reported
2026 Q2
$116.21B
Reported
Online storesThird-party seller servicesAdvertising services (North America)Subscription services (Prime)Physical stores
Sequential growth
+3.6%/qtr
decaying toward +1.8%
3.6% a quarter, about the 16% year-over-year just posted. Q3 guidance is softer on a Prime Day timing shift.
North America
Latest: $223.78B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $92.89B |
| 2025Q2 | $100.07B |
| 2025Q3 | $106.27B |
| 2025Q4 | $127.09B |
| 2026Q1 | $104.12B |
| 2026Q2 | $116.21B |
| 2026Q3E | $125.77B |
| 2026Q4E | $153.02B |
| 2027Q1E | $124.97B |
| 2027Q2E | $136.55B |
| 2027Q3E | $146.88B |
| 2027Q4E | $177.72B |
| 2028Q1E | $144.42B |
| 2028Q2E | $157.08B |
| 2028Q3E | $168.29B |
| 2028Q4E | $202.87B |
| 2029Q1E | $164.31B |
| 2029Q2E | $178.20B |
| 2029Q3E | $190.40B |
| 2029Q4E | $228.97B |
| 2030Q1E | $185.05B |
| 2030Q2E | $200.29B |
| 2030Q3E | $213.63B |
| 2030Q4E | $256.51B |
| 2031Q1E | $207.01B |
| 2031Q2E | $223.78B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Carried as a growth rate rather than as customers x spend because Amazon publishes neither: the Prime member count has not been updated since the 200 million figure of 2021, and it is a global number that cannot be assigned to a segment. A customers-times-spend model here would be two invented inputs multiplied together to reproduce a number Amazon already discloses.
- 3.6% a quarter is roughly the 16% year-over-year this segment just posted, and it decays to 1.75% - about 7% a year - by the end of the window. Holding mid-teens growth on a $450B-a-year revenue base for five years is the single easiest way to make this model say anything you like, so it is not held.
- Quarterly revenue is seasonally shaped from Amazon's reported 2025 segment sales after removing the disclosed 10% annual growth trend. The factors average to one, so they move revenue between quarters without changing the underlying annual run rate: Q4 carries the holiday peak and Q1 resets below it.
- The EBITDA margin of 12% is the disclosed 7.8% operating margin plus an assumed share of fulfilment and transportation depreciation. It glides to 15% because advertising and third-party seller fees grow faster than the retail revenue they attach to, which is the same mix shift that took operating income up 21% on 16% revenue growth.
- Capex intensity of 7% covers fulfilment centres, the transportation network and the robotics programme. It is a small share of the roughly $200B Amazon has guided for 2026 - almost all of that is AWS, and it is charged there.