ABBV · Forward model · Aesthetics
What has to happen in Aesthetics
Model as of
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Aesthetics
Basis quarter$1.28B
Final quarter$1.43B
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix6%
Botox Cosmetic and the Juvederm collection are consumer-paid procedures sold directly to physicians, so volume tracks discretionary spending rather than reimbursement. $1,282M in 2026 Q2, +0.2% reported and -0.9% operational, with management citing continued headwinds in key dermal filler markets.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$1.19B
Reported
2025 Q4
$1.29B
Reported
2026 Q1
$1.19B
Reported
2026 Q2
$1.28B
Reported
Botox CosmeticJuvederm CollectionOther Aesthetics
Sequential growth
+0.3%/qtr
decaying toward +0.8%
0.3% deseasonalised - flat, matching a trailing four-quarter rate of 0.06% and an operationally negative basis quarter.
Aesthetics
Latest: $1.43B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $1.24B |
| 2023Q4 | $1.37B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.25B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.39B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.24B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.30B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.10B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.28B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.19B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.29B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.19B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.28B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.18B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.27B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.13B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.30B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.20B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.29B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.15B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.33B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.22B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.32B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.18B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.36B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.25B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.35B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.21B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.39B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.29B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.39B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.24B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.43B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonality [0.926, 1.059, 0.972, 1.042] gives Q2 and Q4 peaks around a Q3 trough, and that shape repeats in both windows with spreads of 0.2pp on Q3 and 0.4pp on Q4. The Q1 factor is the weak one: a 7.4pp signal against a 5.1pp window-to-window spread, so treat Q1 as the least certain quarter of this vertical.
- The projected path is $4.92B in FY2026 against $4.86B reported for FY2025 and $5.27B by FY2030. That is the assumption most exposed to being wrong in either direction, because it is the only vertical whose demand is a discretionary consumer purchase.
- China exposure inside aesthetics is not disclosed at the portfolio level, so no geographic split is modelled.