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ABBV · Forward model · Aesthetics · Bear case

What has to happen in Aesthetics

Model as of

This page changes Aesthetics inside the complete ABBV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ABBV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $205.76 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.22B 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $8.80B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Erosion outruns the launches. Humira was still shrinking 35.9% year over year in the basis quarter, Imbruvica 29.4%, and aesthetics turned negative operationally on dermal-filler weakness - three of the six portfolios were flat or falling. This case holds immunology's terminal rate down, lets aesthetics and the All other residual keep declining, takes two points off margin and pays 13x exit EBITDA rather than 16x. FY2030 revenue lands at $76.2B against $85.0B in the base.

Aesthetics

Basis quarter$1.28B
Final quarter$1.22B
Implied CAGR−1%
Final revenue mix6%

Botox Cosmetic and the Juvederm collection are consumer-paid procedures sold directly to physicians, so volume tracks discretionary spending rather than reimbursement. $1,282M in 2026 Q2, +0.2% reported and -0.9% operational, with management citing continued headwinds in key dermal filler markets.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.19B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.29B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.19B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.28B Reported
Botox CosmeticJuvederm CollectionOther Aesthetics
Sequential growth +0.3%/qtr decaying toward +0.8% 0.3% deseasonalised - flat, matching a trailing four-quarter rate of 0.06% and an operationally negative basis quarter.
Aesthetics

Latest: $1.22B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q3 $1.24B
2023Q4 $1.37B
2024Q1 $1.25B
2024Q2 $1.39B
2024Q3 $1.24B
2024Q4 $1.30B
2025Q1 $1.10B
2025Q2 $1.28B
2025Q3 $1.19B
2025Q4 $1.29B
2026Q1 $1.19B
2026Q2 $1.28B
2026Q3E $1.17B
2026Q4E $1.25B
2027Q1E $1.11B
2027Q2E $1.26B
2027Q3E $1.15B
2027Q4E $1.23B
2028Q1E $1.09B
2028Q2E $1.24B
2028Q3E $1.14B
2028Q4E $1.22B
2029Q1E $1.08B
2029Q2E $1.23B
2029Q3E $1.13B
2029Q4E $1.21B
2030Q1E $1.07B
2030Q2E $1.22B
2030Q3E $1.12B
2030Q4E $1.20B
2031Q1E $1.07B
2031Q2E $1.22B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Seasonality [0.926, 1.059, 0.972, 1.042] gives Q2 and Q4 peaks around a Q3 trough, and that shape repeats in both windows with spreads of 0.2pp on Q3 and 0.4pp on Q4. The Q1 factor is the weak one: a 7.4pp signal against a 5.1pp window-to-window spread, so treat Q1 as the least certain quarter of this vertical.
  • The projected path is $4.92B in FY2026 against $4.86B reported for FY2025 and $5.27B by FY2030. That is the assumption most exposed to being wrong in either direction, because it is the only vertical whose demand is a discretionary consumer purchase.
  • China exposure inside aesthetics is not disclosed at the portfolio level, so no geographic split is modelled.
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