ABBV · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
AbbVie operates as ONE reportable segment. The six verticals here are the revenue disaggregation AbbVie itself publishes - Immunology, Neuroscience, Oncology, Aesthetics, Other key products and the All other residual - and nothing finer is modelled, because nothing finer is disclosed. Five portfolio totals come from each quarter's own 8-K Exhibit 99.1 Key Product Revenues table; All other is the residual of consolidated revenue less those five, marked estimated on every point, and it reproduces the 10-Q All other line exactly at $1,109M for the basis quarter. The six verticals sum to the reported $16,990M of 2026 Q2 net revenues with no plug. No per-portfolio margin exists in any filing, so all six carry the same assumed 49.5% EBITDA margin - consolidated adjusted operating margin of 48.3% plus about 1.2 points of depreciation - and the 1.3% corporate overhead is the bridge from that basis-quarter print to the guided FY2026 adjusted operating margin approaching 47% of sales. Tax is the 14.5% adjusted rate the CFO forecast for the full year, applied unlevered: interest expense is not deducted from cash flow, because the $64.3B of net debt is deducted from enterprise value instead. Eye care disappeared from the disclosed tables in 2026 Q1 and was reclassified into All other with prior periods restated; that is a presentation change, not a divestiture. The Apogee acquisition announced 31 July 2026 is not in the base case at all - it had not closed at the basis quarter - and appears only as a named scenario.
Erosion outruns the launches. Humira was still shrinking 35.9% year over year in the basis quarter, Imbruvica 29.4%, and aesthetics turned negative operationally on dermal-filler weakness - three of the six portfolios were flat or falling. This case holds immunology's terminal rate down, lets aesthetics and the All other residual keep declining, takes two points off margin and pays 13x exit EBITDA rather than 16x. FY2030 revenue lands at $76.2B against $85.0B in the base.
Latest: $19.95B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $13.93B |
| 2023Q4 | $14.30B |
| 2024Q1 | $12.31B |
| 2024Q2 | $14.46B |
| 2024Q3 | $14.46B |
| 2024Q4 | $15.10B |
| 2025Q1 | $13.34B |
| 2025Q2 | $15.42B |
| 2025Q3 | $15.78B |
| 2025Q4 | $16.62B |
| 2026Q1 | $15.00B |
| 2026Q2 | $16.99B |
| 2026Q3E | $17.15B |
| 2026Q4E | $17.78B |
| 2027Q1E | $15.51B |
| 2027Q2E | $17.92B |
| 2027Q3E | $18.01B |
| 2027Q4E | $18.61B |
| 2028Q1E | $16.10B |
| 2028Q2E | $18.62B |
| 2028Q3E | $18.66B |
| 2028Q4E | $19.23B |
| 2029Q1E | $16.56B |
| 2029Q2E | $19.16B |
| 2029Q3E | $19.16B |
| 2029Q4E | $19.72B |
| 2030Q1E | $16.92B |
| 2030Q2E | $19.59B |
| 2030Q3E | $19.57B |
| 2030Q4E | $20.13B |
| 2031Q1E | $17.23B |
| 2031Q2E | $19.95B |
What drives each segment
Immunology
Growth pathSkyrizi and Rinvoq more than replace Humira. At $8,786M in 2026 Q2 the portfolio is 52% of AbbVie revenue and effectively all of its growth: +15.1% year over year while Humira fell 35.9% to $756M. No script or patient volume is published, so the disclosed portfolio revenue line is the only driver the disclosure supports.
Latest: $11.87B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $6.78B |
| 2023Q4 | $6.95B |
| 2024Q1 | $5.37B |
| 2024Q2 | $6.97B |
| 2024Q3 | $7.05B |
| 2024Q4 | $7.29B |
| 2025Q1 | $6.26B |
| 2025Q2 | $7.63B |
| 2025Q3 | $7.88B |
| 2025Q4 | $8.63B |
| 2026Q1 | $7.29B |
| 2026Q2 | $8.79B |
| 2026Q3E | $9.00B |
| 2026Q4E | $9.58B |
| 2027Q1E | $7.85B |
| 2027Q2E | $9.87B |
| 2027Q3E | $9.99B |
| 2027Q4E | $10.51B |
| 2028Q1E | $8.54B |
| 2028Q2E | $10.64B |
| 2028Q3E | $10.69B |
| 2028Q4E | $11.17B |
| 2029Q1E | $9.02B |
| 2029Q2E | $11.18B |
| 2029Q3E | $11.18B |
| 2029Q4E | $11.64B |
| 2030Q1E | $9.36B |
| 2030Q2E | $11.57B |
| 2030Q3E | $11.54B |
| 2030Q4E | $11.99B |
| 2031Q1E | $9.62B |
| 2031Q2E | $11.87B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonality [0.852, 1.045, 1.035, 1.068] is the brief's ratio-to-centred-four-quarter-moving-average result over twelve quarters. The Q1 trough of about 15% below trend repeats in both the 2024 and 2025 windows and the widest window-to-window spread is 5.5pp, well inside the signal. The cause is the January US gross-to-net reset: deductible resets, Part D re-enrolment and wholesaler destocking.
- With seasonality on, growthQoQ is a deseasonalised trend rate, not the sequential print. The model's first two projected quarters are $9,050M and $9,681M, which is +14.8% and +12.2% year over year against the reported 2025 Q3 and Q4.
- Model FY2026 immunology is $34.81B. That sits against the only disclosed FY2026 product number for the portfolio, Skyrizi at approximately $21.7 billion, plus a Rinvoq and Humira remainder that AbbVie has not guided by portfolio total.
- Margin is the consolidated assumption, not a portfolio disclosure: AbbVie runs as a single reportable segment and publishes no per-portfolio profitability at all.
Neuroscience
Growth pathVraylar, Botox Therapeutic, the migraine pair Ubrelvy and Qulipta, and the Vyalev launch. $3,228M in 2026 Q2, +20.3% year over year, with no loss of exclusivity inside the horizon. Prescription volume is not disclosed, so the portfolio revenue line carries the projection.
Latest: $3.72B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $2.04B |
| 2023Q4 | $2.09B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.97B |
| 2024Q2 | $2.16B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.36B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.51B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.28B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.68B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.84B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.96B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.88B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.23B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.32B |
| 2026Q4E | $3.34B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.98B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.26B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.37B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.40B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.05B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.34B |
| 2028Q3E | $3.46B |
| 2028Q4E | $3.50B |
| 2029Q1E | $3.14B |
| 2029Q2E | $3.45B |
| 2029Q3E | $3.58B |
| 2029Q4E | $3.62B |
| 2030Q1E | $3.25B |
| 2030Q2E | $3.58B |
| 2030Q3E | $3.71B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.76B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.38B |
| 2031Q2E | $3.72B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This is the one vertical where the disclosed guidance and the disclosed trend disagree, and guidance wins for 2026. Deseasonalised sequential growth has averaged 5.1% a quarter over eight quarters, but management guided total neuroscience revenues of $12.7 billion for FY2026, and the first half already carries $6,103M. The model lands FY2026 at $12.82B.
- Seasonality [0.923, 1.005, 1.034, 1.037]: the Q1 trough of about 8% below trend repeats in both windows with a 2.7pp spread, and Q2 through Q4 sit within 3.5pp of one another.
- The terminal rate is above the opening rate on purpose. The opening rate is a guided-year constraint, not a statement that the portfolio has stopped compounding; Vyalev more than doubled year over year and Qulipta grew 30.9% in the basis quarter.
Oncology
Growth pathVenclexta, Elahere and Epkinly growth against Imbruvica erosion, which nets to a flat portfolio: $1,650M in 2026 Q2, -1.6% year over year, against $1,634M two years earlier. Part of the line is collaboration profit share rather than product sales, so no unit driver exists.
Latest: $1.60B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $1.51B |
| 2023Q4 | $1.51B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.54B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.63B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.69B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.69B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.63B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.68B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.68B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.66B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.63B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.65B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.64B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.63B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.62B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.61B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.61B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.60B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.60B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.60B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.59B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.59B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.59B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.59B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.59B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.59B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.59B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.60B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.60B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.60B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.60B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.60B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Aseasonal on the brief's evidence, and that is a finding rather than a gap. The observed factors span only 0.976 to 1.013, about 4pp peak to trough, against a window-to-window spread of 0.5 to 1.2pp; the Imbruvica loss-of-exclusivity trend dominates any calendar shape.
- The model holds the portfolio at $6.57B in FY2026 against $6.66B reported for FY2025, then lets it recover to $6.94B by FY2030 - a 1.4% annual rate over the horizon, which is a mix shift, not a growth thesis.
Aesthetics
Growth pathBotox Cosmetic and the Juvederm collection are consumer-paid procedures sold directly to physicians, so volume tracks discretionary spending rather than reimbursement. $1,282M in 2026 Q2, +0.2% reported and -0.9% operational, with management citing continued headwinds in key dermal filler markets.
Latest: $1.22B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $1.24B |
| 2023Q4 | $1.37B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.25B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.39B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.24B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.30B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.10B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.28B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.19B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.29B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.19B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.28B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.17B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.25B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.11B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.26B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.15B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.23B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.09B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.24B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.14B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.22B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.08B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.23B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.13B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.21B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.07B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.22B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.12B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.20B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.07B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.22B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonality [0.926, 1.059, 0.972, 1.042] gives Q2 and Q4 peaks around a Q3 trough, and that shape repeats in both windows with spreads of 0.2pp on Q3 and 0.4pp on Q4. The Q1 factor is the weak one: a 7.4pp signal against a 5.1pp window-to-window spread, so treat Q1 as the least certain quarter of this vertical.
- The projected path is $4.92B in FY2026 against $4.86B reported for FY2025 and $5.27B by FY2030. That is the assumption most exposed to being wrong in either direction, because it is the only vertical whose demand is a discretionary consumer purchase.
- China exposure inside aesthetics is not disclosed at the portfolio level, so no geographic split is modelled.
Other key products
Growth pathMavyret, Creon and Linzess: three mature, mostly US products disclosed by revenue only. $935M in 2026 Q2, -9.8% year over year, with Mavyret down 22.2% operationally as the treated hepatitis C population shrinks.
Latest: $762M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $963M |
| 2023Q4 | $968M |
| 2024Q1 | $900M |
| 2024Q2 | $962M |
| 2024Q3 | $874M |
| 2024Q4 | $912M |
| 2025Q1 | $809M |
| 2025Q2 | $1.04B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.01B |
| 2025Q4 | $884M |
| 2026Q1 | $995M |
| 2026Q2 | $935M |
| 2026Q3E | $923M |
| 2026Q4E | $911M |
| 2027Q1E | $900M |
| 2027Q2E | $890M |
| 2027Q3E | $880M |
| 2027Q4E | $870M |
| 2028Q1E | $861M |
| 2028Q2E | $852M |
| 2028Q3E | $844M |
| 2028Q4E | $835M |
| 2029Q1E | $827M |
| 2029Q2E | $819M |
| 2029Q3E | $811M |
| 2029Q4E | $804M |
| 2030Q1E | $797M |
| 2030Q2E | $789M |
| 2030Q3E | $782M |
| 2030Q4E | $776M |
| 2031Q1E | $769M |
| 2031Q2E | $762M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Aseasonal by evidence: the window-to-window spread of 6.0 to 10.2pp exceeds the apparent seasonal signal on every single quarter, so encoding factors here would encode noise.
- The line is genuinely lumpy quarter to quarter - deseasonalised sequential moves in the disclosed history run from -19.9% to +18.3% - so the level, not any one quarter's growth rate, is the input. Linzess grew 41.8% for the half on a US basis that includes a comparability change.
- Model FY2026 is $3.78B against $3.74B reported for FY2025, falling to $3.42B by FY2030.
All other
Growth pathThe residual line disclosed as All other in the 10-Q revenue disaggregation. From 2026 it absorbs the eye care portfolio, which AbbVie stopped breaking out and restated prior periods for; eye care was in structural decline, at $580M and -19% year over year in its last disclosed quarter.
Latest: $776M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $1.39B |
| 2023Q4 | $1.41B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.28B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.34B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.25B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.40B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.25B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.12B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.17B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.20B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.02B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.11B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.09B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.07B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.05B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.03B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.01B |
| 2027Q4E | $988M |
| 2028Q1E | $970M |
| 2028Q2E | $953M |
| 2028Q3E | $936M |
| 2028Q4E | $920M |
| 2029Q1E | $904M |
| 2029Q2E | $888M |
| 2029Q3E | $873M |
| 2029Q4E | $858M |
| 2030Q1E | $844M |
| 2030Q2E | $830M |
| 2030Q3E | $816M |
| 2030Q4E | $803M |
| 2031Q1E | $789M |
| 2031Q2E | $776M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Every point in this line is derived, not reported as a portfolio total, and is marked estimated for that reason: it is consolidated net revenues less the five disclosed portfolio totals. The method was tested against disclosure - it reproduces the 10-Q All other line exactly at $1,117M for 2025 Q2 and $1,109M for 2026 Q2.
- Aseasonal: the window-to-window spread of 2.7 to 9.4pp is as large as or larger than the apparent factors, so no calendar shape is encoded.
- Because it is a residual, any reclassification by AbbVie moves it with no operating cause at all. The eye care fold-in is exactly that, and no divestiture is disclosed anywhere in the 10-Q or the release.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Apogee case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Apogee column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Apogee acquisition announcement inside the 2026 Q2 release
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $113.60B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $76.88B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $35.52B |
| Exit multiple, on ebitda | 13.0x |
| Terminal value | $461.74B |
| Discounted at 8.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $314.25B |
| Enterprise value | $427.85B |
| Net cash | -$64.25B |
| Equity value | $363.60B |
| Shares | 1.77B |
| Fair value per share | $205.76 |
| Against the current price of $258.15 | -20% |
Exit is taken on EBITDA at 16.0x, marginally below the 16.4x the market pays today on an enterprise value of $531.7B against about $32.4B of FY2026 adjusted EBITDA, so the base case re-rates nothing. The 7.9x revenue figure is the same enterprise value against the guided $67.6B and is carried only as a cross-check. The 8% discount rate is an assumed large-cap investment-grade pharma cost of capital; AbbVie discloses none.
Read the other way round: at $258.15 the market is paying 16.8x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Immunology | Neuroscience | Oncology | Aesthetics | Other key products | All other | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $9.00B | $3.32B | $1.64B | $1.17B | $923M | $1.09B | $17.15B | +9% | $7.92B | $309M | $6.51B | +47 | $6.39B |
| 2026 Q4E | $9.58B | $3.34B | $1.63B | $1.25B | $911M | $1.07B | $17.78B | +7% | $8.21B | $320M | $6.75B | +45 | $6.49B |
| 2027 Q1E | $7.85B | $2.98B | $1.62B | $1.11B | $900M | $1.05B | $15.51B | +3% | $7.16B | $279M | $5.89B | +41 | $5.56B |
| 2027 Q2E | $9.87B | $3.26B | $1.61B | $1.26B | $890M | $1.03B | $17.92B | +5% | $8.28B | $323M | $6.80B | +43 | $6.30B |
| 2027 Q3E | $9.99B | $3.37B | $1.61B | $1.15B | $880M | $1.01B | $18.01B | +5% | $8.32B | $324M | $6.84B | +43 | $6.21B |
| 2027 Q4E | $10.51B | $3.40B | $1.60B | $1.23B | $870M | $988M | $18.61B | +5% | $8.60B | $335M | $7.06B | +43 | $6.29B |
| 2028 Q1E | $8.54B | $3.05B | $1.60B | $1.09B | $861M | $970M | $16.10B | +4% | $7.44B | $290M | $6.11B | +42 | $5.34B |
| 2028 Q2E | $10.64B | $3.34B | $1.60B | $1.24B | $852M | $953M | $18.62B | +4% | $8.60B | $335M | $7.07B | +42 | $6.06B |
| 2028 Q3E | $10.69B | $3.46B | $1.59B | $1.14B | $844M | $936M | $18.66B | +4% | $8.62B | $336M | $7.08B | +42 | $5.96B |
| 2028 Q4E | $11.17B | $3.50B | $1.59B | $1.22B | $835M | $920M | $19.23B | +3% | $8.89B | $346M | $7.30B | +41 | $6.02B |
| 2029 Q1E | $9.02B | $3.14B | $1.59B | $1.08B | $827M | $904M | $16.56B | +3% | $7.65B | $298M | $6.29B | +41 | $5.09B |
| 2029 Q2E | $11.18B | $3.45B | $1.59B | $1.23B | $819M | $888M | $19.16B | +3% | $8.85B | $345M | $7.27B | +41 | $5.77B |
| 2029 Q3E | $11.18B | $3.58B | $1.59B | $1.13B | $811M | $873M | $19.16B | +3% | $8.85B | $345M | $7.27B | +41 | $5.67B |
| 2029 Q4E | $11.64B | $3.62B | $1.59B | $1.21B | $804M | $858M | $19.72B | +3% | $9.11B | $355M | $7.49B | +41 | $5.72B |
| 2030 Q1E | $9.36B | $3.25B | $1.59B | $1.07B | $797M | $844M | $16.92B | +2% | $7.82B | $305M | $6.42B | +40 | $4.81B |
| 2030 Q2E | $11.57B | $3.58B | $1.60B | $1.22B | $789M | $830M | $19.59B | +2% | $9.05B | $353M | $7.44B | +40 | $5.46B |
| 2030 Q3E | $11.54B | $3.71B | $1.60B | $1.12B | $782M | $816M | $19.57B | +2% | $9.04B | $352M | $7.43B | +40 | $5.36B |
| 2030 Q4E | $11.99B | $3.76B | $1.60B | $1.20B | $776M | $803M | $20.13B | +2% | $9.30B | $362M | $7.64B | +40 | $5.40B |
| 2031 Q1E | $9.62B | $3.38B | $1.60B | $1.07B | $769M | $789M | $17.23B | +2% | $7.96B | $310M | $6.54B | +40 | $4.54B |
| 2031 Q2E | $11.87B | $3.72B | $1.60B | $1.22B | $762M | $776M | $19.95B | +2% | $9.22B | $359M | $7.57B | +40 | $5.15B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | all | $293.79 | Model created from the verified 2026 Q2 research brief: twelve quarters of disclosed portfolio revenue, derived seasonality on immunology, neuroscience and aesthetics, and FY2026 calibrated against the guided approximately $67.6 billion. |