ABBV · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
AbbVie operates as ONE reportable segment. The six verticals here are the revenue disaggregation AbbVie itself publishes - Immunology, Neuroscience, Oncology, Aesthetics, Other key products and the All other residual - and nothing finer is modelled, because nothing finer is disclosed. Five portfolio totals come from each quarter's own 8-K Exhibit 99.1 Key Product Revenues table; All other is the residual of consolidated revenue less those five, marked estimated on every point, and it reproduces the 10-Q All other line exactly at $1,109M for the basis quarter. The six verticals sum to the reported $16,990M of 2026 Q2 net revenues with no plug. No per-portfolio margin exists in any filing, so all six carry the same assumed 49.5% EBITDA margin - consolidated adjusted operating margin of 48.3% plus about 1.2 points of depreciation - and the 1.3% corporate overhead is the bridge from that basis-quarter print to the guided FY2026 adjusted operating margin approaching 47% of sales. Tax is the 14.5% adjusted rate the CFO forecast for the full year, applied unlevered: interest expense is not deducted from cash flow, because the $64.3B of net debt is deducted from enterprise value instead. Eye care disappeared from the disclosed tables in 2026 Q1 and was reclassified into All other with prior periods restated; that is a presentation change, not a divestiture. The Apogee acquisition announced 31 July 2026 is not in the base case at all - it had not closed at the basis quarter - and appears only as a named scenario.
Shares this page's scenario. Driver and horizon edits stay in your browser — the recipient sees the published model.
Latest: $19.95B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $13.93B |
| 2023Q4 | $14.30B |
| 2024Q1 | $12.31B |
| 2024Q2 | $14.46B |
| 2024Q3 | $14.46B |
| 2024Q4 | $15.10B |
| 2025Q1 | $13.34B |
| 2025Q2 | $15.42B |
| 2025Q3 | $15.78B |
| 2025Q4 | $16.62B |
| 2026Q1 | $15.00B |
| 2026Q2 | $16.99B |
| 2026Q3E | $17.15B |
| 2026Q4E | $17.78B |
| 2027Q1E | $15.51B |
| 2027Q2E | $17.92B |
| 2027Q3E | $18.01B |
| 2027Q4E | $18.61B |
| 2028Q1E | $16.10B |
| 2028Q2E | $18.62B |
| 2028Q3E | $18.66B |
| 2028Q4E | $19.23B |
| 2029Q1E | $16.56B |
| 2029Q2E | $19.16B |
| 2029Q3E | $19.16B |
| 2029Q4E | $19.72B |
| 2030Q1E | $16.92B |
| 2030Q2E | $19.59B |
| 2030Q3E | $19.57B |
| 2030Q4E | $20.13B |
| 2031Q1E | $17.23B |
| 2031Q2E | $19.95B |
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Apogee case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Apogee column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Apogee acquisition announcement inside the 2026 Q2 release
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $113.60B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $76.88B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $35.52B |
| Exit multiple, on ebitda | 13.0x |
| Terminal value | $461.74B |
| Discounted at 8.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $314.25B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 73% |
| Enterprise value | $427.85B |
| Net cash | -$64.25B |
| Equity value | $363.60B |
| Shares | 1.77B |
| Fair value per share | $205.76 |
| Against the deployed price of $256.46, as of | -20% |
Exit is taken on EBITDA at 16.0x, marginally below the 16.4x the market pays today on an enterprise value of $531.7B against about $32.4B of FY2026 adjusted EBITDA, so the base case re-rates nothing. The 7.9x revenue figure is the same enterprise value against the guided $67.6B and is carried only as a cross-check. The 8% discount rate is an assumed large-cap investment-grade pharma cost of capital; AbbVie discloses none.
Read the other way round: at $256.46 the market is paying 16.7x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Immunology | Neuroscience | Oncology | Aesthetics | Other key products | All other | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $9.00B | $3.32B | $1.64B | $1.17B | $923M | $1.09B | $17.15B | +9% | $7.92B | $309M | $6.51B | +47 | $6.39B |
| 2026 Q4E | $9.58B | $3.34B | $1.63B | $1.25B | $911M | $1.07B | $17.78B | +7% | $8.21B | $320M | $6.75B | +45 | $6.49B |
| 2027 Q1E | $7.85B | $2.98B | $1.62B | $1.11B | $900M | $1.05B | $15.51B | +3% | $7.16B | $279M | $5.89B | +41 | $5.56B |
| 2027 Q2E | $9.87B | $3.26B | $1.61B | $1.26B | $890M | $1.03B | $17.92B | +5% | $8.28B | $323M | $6.80B | +43 | $6.30B |
| 2027 Q3E | $9.99B | $3.37B | $1.61B | $1.15B | $880M | $1.01B | $18.01B | +5% | $8.32B | $324M | $6.84B | +43 | $6.21B |
| 2027 Q4E | $10.51B | $3.40B | $1.60B | $1.23B | $870M | $988M | $18.61B | +5% | $8.60B | $335M | $7.06B | +43 | $6.29B |
| 2028 Q1E | $8.54B | $3.05B | $1.60B | $1.09B | $861M | $970M | $16.10B | +4% | $7.44B | $290M | $6.11B | +42 | $5.34B |
| 2028 Q2E | $10.64B | $3.34B | $1.60B | $1.24B | $852M | $953M | $18.62B | +4% | $8.60B | $335M | $7.07B | +42 | $6.06B |
| 2028 Q3E | $10.69B | $3.46B | $1.59B | $1.14B | $844M | $936M | $18.66B | +4% | $8.62B | $336M | $7.08B | +42 | $5.96B |
| 2028 Q4E | $11.17B | $3.50B | $1.59B | $1.22B | $835M | $920M | $19.23B | +3% | $8.89B | $346M | $7.30B | +41 | $6.02B |
| 2029 Q1E | $9.02B | $3.14B | $1.59B | $1.08B | $827M | $904M | $16.56B | +3% | $7.65B | $298M | $6.29B | +41 | $5.09B |
| 2029 Q2E | $11.18B | $3.45B | $1.59B | $1.23B | $819M | $888M | $19.16B | +3% | $8.85B | $345M | $7.27B | +41 | $5.77B |
| 2029 Q3E | $11.18B | $3.58B | $1.59B | $1.13B | $811M | $873M | $19.16B | +3% | $8.85B | $345M | $7.27B | +41 | $5.67B |
| 2029 Q4E | $11.64B | $3.62B | $1.59B | $1.21B | $804M | $858M | $19.72B | +3% | $9.11B | $355M | $7.49B | +41 | $5.72B |
| 2030 Q1E | $9.36B | $3.25B | $1.59B | $1.07B | $797M | $844M | $16.92B | +2% | $7.82B | $305M | $6.42B | +40 | $4.81B |
| 2030 Q2E | $11.57B | $3.58B | $1.60B | $1.22B | $789M | $830M | $19.59B | +2% | $9.05B | $353M | $7.44B | +40 | $5.46B |
| 2030 Q3E | $11.54B | $3.71B | $1.60B | $1.12B | $782M | $816M | $19.57B | +2% | $9.04B | $352M | $7.43B | +40 | $5.36B |
| 2030 Q4E | $11.99B | $3.76B | $1.60B | $1.20B | $776M | $803M | $20.13B | +2% | $9.30B | $362M | $7.64B | +40 | $5.40B |
| 2031 Q1E | $9.62B | $3.38B | $1.60B | $1.07B | $769M | $789M | $17.23B | +2% | $7.96B | $310M | $6.54B | +40 | $4.54B |
| 2031 Q2E | $11.87B | $3.72B | $1.60B | $1.22B | $762M | $776M | $19.95B | +2% | $9.22B | $359M | $7.57B | +40 | $5.15B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $293.79 | Model created from the verified 2026 Q2 research brief: twelve quarters of disclosed portfolio revenue, derived seasonality on immunology, neuroscience and aesthetics, and FY2026 calibrated against the guided approximately $67.6 billion. |