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What has to happen in Other key products

Model as of

This page changes Other key products inside the complete ABBV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ABBV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $205.76 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $762M 4% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $6.32B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Erosion outruns the launches. Humira was still shrinking 35.9% year over year in the basis quarter, Imbruvica 29.4%, and aesthetics turned negative operationally on dermal-filler weakness - three of the six portfolios were flat or falling. This case holds immunology's terminal rate down, lets aesthetics and the All other residual keep declining, takes two points off margin and pays 13x exit EBITDA rather than 16x. FY2030 revenue lands at $76.2B against $85.0B in the base.

Other key products

Basis quarter$935M
Final quarter$762M
Implied CAGR−4%
Final revenue mix4%

Mavyret, Creon and Linzess: three mature, mostly US products disclosed by revenue only. $935M in 2026 Q2, -9.8% year over year, with Mavyret down 22.2% operationally as the treated hepatitis C population shrinks.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.01B Reported
2025 Q4 $884M Reported
2026 Q1 $995M Reported
2026 Q2 $935M Reported
MavyretCreonLinzess
Sequential growth −0.8%/qtr decaying toward −0.3% -0.8% a quarter. The eight-quarter sequential rate is -0.35% and the last year -2.6%; this sits between them.
Other key products

Latest: $762M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q3 $963M
2023Q4 $968M
2024Q1 $900M
2024Q2 $962M
2024Q3 $874M
2024Q4 $912M
2025Q1 $809M
2025Q2 $1.04B
2025Q3 $1.01B
2025Q4 $884M
2026Q1 $995M
2026Q2 $935M
2026Q3E $923M
2026Q4E $911M
2027Q1E $900M
2027Q2E $890M
2027Q3E $880M
2027Q4E $870M
2028Q1E $861M
2028Q2E $852M
2028Q3E $844M
2028Q4E $835M
2029Q1E $827M
2029Q2E $819M
2029Q3E $811M
2029Q4E $804M
2030Q1E $797M
2030Q2E $789M
2030Q3E $782M
2030Q4E $776M
2031Q1E $769M
2031Q2E $762M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Aseasonal by evidence: the window-to-window spread of 6.0 to 10.2pp exceeds the apparent seasonal signal on every single quarter, so encoding factors here would encode noise.
  • The line is genuinely lumpy quarter to quarter - deseasonalised sequential moves in the disclosed history run from -19.9% to +18.3% - so the level, not any one quarter's growth rate, is the input. Linzess grew 41.8% for the half on a US basis that includes a comparability change.
  • Model FY2026 is $3.78B against $3.74B reported for FY2025, falling to $3.42B by FY2030.
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