V · Forward model · Data processing revenue
What has to happen in Data processing revenue
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Data processing revenue
Basis quarter$6.04B
Final quarter$10.24B
Implied CAGR+11%
Final revenue mix57%
Authorisation, clearing, settlement, network access and the network products bundled with them, earned on transactions Visa actually switches. The unit is disclosed: 71.7 billion processed transactions in Q3 FY2026 at $0.08427 each.
Last four quarters
2025 Q4
$5.39B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$5.54B
Reported
2026 Q2
$5.54B
Reported
2026 Q3
$6.04B
Reported
Per-transaction switching feesNetwork access and value-added network products
Sequential growth
+3.2%/qtr
decaying toward +2.5%
+3.2% deseasonalised, the fastest of the four gross lines: transactions +10% and yield per transaction +7%.
Data processing revenue
Latest: $10.24B (2031Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q1 | $3.61B |
| 2022Q2 | $3.48B |
| 2022Q3 | $3.58B |
| 2022Q4 | $3.77B |
| 2023Q1 | $3.83B |
| 2023Q2 | $3.82B |
| 2023Q3 | $4.11B |
| 2023Q4 | $4.26B |
| 2024Q1 | $4.36B |
| 2024Q2 | $4.26B |
| 2024Q3 | $4.49B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.61B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.75B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.70B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.15B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.39B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.54B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.54B |
| 2026Q3 | $6.04B |
| 2026Q4E | $6.31B |
| 2027Q1E | $6.46B |
| 2027Q2E | $6.38B |
| 2027Q3E | $6.80B |
| 2027Q4E | $7.08B |
| 2028Q1E | $7.22B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.12B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.57B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.87B |
| 2029Q1E | $8.02B |
| 2029Q2E | $7.89B |
| 2029Q3E | $8.39B |
| 2029Q4E | $8.71B |
| 2030Q1E | $8.87B |
| 2030Q2E | $8.73B |
| 2030Q3E | $9.27B |
| 2030Q4E | $9.62B |
| 2031Q1E | $9.80B |
| 2031Q2E | $9.64B |
| 2031Q3E | $10.24B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The one line with a disclosed unit. Processed transactions by fiscal quarter, in billions: 2024 57.5, 55.5, 59.3, 61.5; 2025 63.8, 60.7, 65.4, 67.7; 2026 69.4, 66.1, 71.7. Yield per transaction reached $0.08427 in the June quarter, up 7.0% year over year, so revenue is outgrowing its own volume by seven points.
- It is still a growth driver, deliberately. The engine's unit driver computes revenue as units times price and ignores the basis actual, so it would need the DESEASONALISED 71,386M transactions rather than the disclosed 71,700M, and a deseasonalised unit count displayed as if it were reported is worse than not showing one at all.
- Seasonality [1.010, 0.969, 1.004, 1.017] is corroborated by an independent disclosed series: processed transactions themselves carry [1.023, 0.958, 1.003, 1.016] with a worst-quarter spread of 0.83% and a signal-to-noise ratio of 7.9. The revenue shape is the same shape, damped by a yield that moves the other way.